Monte-Carlo R1 previews and predictions: Murray vs. De Minaur, Gasquet vs. Thiem

Murray

Andy Murray kicks off his 2023 clay season at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters against Aussie Alex de Minaur. Monday’s busy first-round schedule also includes Richard Gasquet going up against Dominic Thiem.

Andy Murray vs. (14) Alex de Minaur

World No. 57 Andy Murray has had an eventful start to the season. The veteran Scot upset Matteo Berrettini in an epic five-set first-round marathon at the Australian Open. And while he was dispatched two rounds later by Roberto Bautista Agut, he came back in his next event (Doha) to make the final. Murray is 8-5 on the season going into the clay-court swing.

Alex de Minaur won a hard-court title already this year at the 500 event in Acapulco. He has generally had a good season, although he lost his first matches in both Indian Wells and Miami. He has been out of sorts–a bad sign for de Minaur going into a stretch on his worst surface.

This is a decent opportunity for Murray. He is 0-2 against De Minaur, but they hve only ever met on hard courts. The three-time major champion is far more experienced on the dirt. It isn’t Murray’s favorite surface, either, but he at least has a winning record. De Minaur is under .500 (15-22) lifetime on clay. The Aussie is one of the most athletic players on the tour, but he hasn’t found a way to work that in his favor on this surface.

Cheryl pick: Murray in 3

Ricky pick: Murray in 3

WWW: De Minaur vs. Murray?

(WC) Dominic Thiem vs. Richard Gasquet

Dominic Thiem has been struggling mightily to find his game since he was sidelined for eight months with a wrist injury. The Austrian secured his first slam title at the 2020 U.S. Open, but has been in ranking free-fall since. He is currently the world No. 111. He gained entry to Monte-Carlo with a wild card and he does so without coach Nicolas Massu, with whom he split at the end of last week.


Thiem recently won a pair of matches in Estoril for the first time all year, but they were over qualifier Sebastian Ofner and young American Ben Shelton, who never played a professional match on clay before last week. Until Thiem shows signs that he has found the some of the same magic that saw him to his U.S. Open crown and three other Grand Slam finals (two French Open, one Australian Open), he will be vulnerable in the early stages of any tournament.

Richard Gasquet has had some difficulty finding success in the twilight of his career. The Frenchman won a single tour title back in 2018 in s’Hertogenbosch and won no titles since…until this season. He came out of nowhere to win the Australian Open tune-up event in Auckland.

Gasquet kicked off his clay season in Marrakech, but he lost in the first round. Despite that, and the periodic difficulties he’s had playing in front of French crowds, this is a good opportunity for Gasquet to take advantage of Thiem’s dismal form.

Cheryl pick: Gasquet in 3

Ricky pick: Gasquet in 2

WWW: Gasquet vs. Thiem?

17 Comments on Monte-Carlo R1 previews and predictions: Murray vs. De Minaur, Gasquet vs. Thiem

  1. Clay is by far Murray’s weakest surface, compounded by the fact he’s at a stage of his career when players underperform on their weakest surface.

  2. Murray will be thinking twice about the rest of the clay season now. Is the pain and suffering really worth it. Maybe I should be playing to my strengths at this stage of my career.

    • If Murray was serious about getting his clay court game in order, he should’ve played an ATP250, not turn up cold to a Masters 1000. He lost 1st round in Miami.

      He needs to make adjustments to his game and get more height and topspin on his shots. That’s not going to happen if you’re standing upright all the time and trying to play hard court tennis.

      De Minaur beat him playing hard court tennis on clay.

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