Monte-Carlo SF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fognini, Medvedev vs. Lajovic

Rafael Nadal is the only top-eight seed remaining in Monte-Carlo, but he may have his hands full with familiar foe Fabio Fognini during semifinal action on Saturday. Daniil Medvedev and Dusan Lajovic are also aiming for a place in the title match.

(13) Fabio Fognini vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Fognini will be facing each other for the 15th time in their careers when they square off in the semifinals of the Monte-Carlo Masters on Saturday afternoon. The head-to-head series stands at 11-3 in favor of Nadal, who has has won six in a row dating back to the fall of 2015. Surprisingly, two of Fognini’s three victories have come on clay; 1-6, 6-2, 7-5 in the 2015 Rio de Janeiro semifinals and 6-4, 7(6) a few months later in Barcelona. They last met at the 2018 Rome Masters, where Nadal got the job done 4-6, 6-1, 6-2.

Buoyed by vociferous Italian support in the principality, Fognini has made a dramatic run to the semifinals. The world No. 18 engineered incredible comebacks against Andrey Rublev (first round) and Borna Coric (quarterfinals) while also beating Alexander Zverev 7-6(6), 6-1 (third round) to go along with a walkover from Gilles Simon. Fognini dealt with a right-elbow issue on on Friday, so it remains to be seen if he turns up 100 percent for this one. He will have to, of course, as Nadal is an 11-time champion in Monte-Carlo and once again looking dominant despite his recent knee issues. The second-ranked Spaniard was not at his very best in the quarterfinals, but he still defeated Guido Pella 7-6(1), 6-3 to follow up more impressive wins at the expense of Roberto Bautista Agut and Grigor Dimitrov. Fognini has the talent to trouble Nadal, but even at full strength–which he may not be–this is a difficult proposition for the underdog.

Pick: Nadal in 2

[polldaddy poll=10299280]

(10) Daniil Medvedev vs. Dusan Lajovic

The door seemed to be open for a Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic showdown in the Monte-Carlo final, but a red-hot Medvedev slammed that shut on Friday. Medvedev, who has been one of the best players in the world this season (fifth place in the live race to London), upset Djokovic 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 in the quarterfinals. The 14th-ranked Russian, who preceded the biggest win of his career by ousting Joao Sousa, Radu Albot, and Stefanos Tsitsipas, is now 21-6 for his 2019 campaign.

Up next for Medvedev on Saturday is a second career meeting with Lajovic, who lost their only previous encounter 6-2, 6-1 on the indoor hard courts of Moscow this past fall. But Medvedev does not have home-court advantage this time around, he had never been adept on clay prior to this week, and he cramped just a bit in the third set against Djokovic. Moreover, Lajovic is playing some of the best tennis of his life. The 48th-ranked Serb upset Kei Nishikori to reach the Miami third round and so far in Monte-Carlo he has taken out Malek Jaziri, David Goffin, Dominic Thiem, and Lorenzo Sonego. Medvedev has to make a quick turnaround both physically and mentally, so this is another huge opportunity for Lajovic.

Pick: Lajovic in 3

[polldaddy poll=10299132]