Expert picks are back for the first matchup of the year between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in the championship match of the Monte-Carlo Masters. A three-team panel makes its predictions for Sunday afternoon.
Ricky: How tough to call is the Monte-Carlo final? Alcaraz opened as the favorite at some sportsbooks; Sinner opened as the favorite at others. The bottom line — as is always the case when the two best players in the world collide — is that anything less than an instant classic would be a disappointment. That being said, I give Alcaraz the edge for two reasons — one not especially significant and the other potentially difference making. First, the Spaniard should be ever so slightly more motivated. Whereas Sinner won the Sunshine Double, Alcaraz struggled in both Indian Wells and Miami. This is also the 22-year-old’s last real chance to maintain the top ranking before Sinner inevitably takes over later in April and then surely holds onto it for a while. Second, and more importantly, this is clay we are talking about. Alcaraz’s 11-6 overall lead in the head-to-head series features a 4-1 record on clay, including 3-0 in their last three such meetings. Sinner has been close on clay, but “close” is a lot different than winning when Alcaraz is on the other side of the net. Give me the world No. 1 to win another close one. Alcaraz in 3: 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-3.
Cheryl: The first time I attended Monte-Carlo, the year was 2008 and the final featured Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. It was at the height of their respective careers and the final carried a certain mystique around the grounds of the Monte-Carlo Country Club. Sunday’s final with Alcaraz and Sinner feels the same. There’s a sense that every match between the two of them is destined to become part of tennis lore. Like their Fedal fathers before them, the rivalry is a bit lopsided. Put simply, Alcaraz has Sinner’s number and he has it pretty emphatically on clay. They’re the two best players in the world by a wide margin — but surface matters. Sinner is a better ball striker. I might even go so far as to call him one of the best ball strikers of all time. The problem for the Italian is that clay doesn’t reward clean ball-striking the way hard courts do. Alcaraz employs better clay-court tactics, as attested by his 11 titles to Sinner’s one on this surface. The second seed should grab a set, but don’t see him taking the title. Alcaraz in 3: 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-5.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Despite the fact that we were treated to no less than six Alcaraz vs. Sinner matches in the span of six months beginning in May of 2025, this will somehow be their first meeting in 2026. Following a somewhat slow start to last season, Monte-Carlo was where Alcaraz simply started to steamroll the ATP field for most of the rest of the year — winning an additional seven titles. Sinner has played solid tennis this week in reaching his first Monte-Carlo final. The Italian has yet to win a Masters 1000 on clay and owns just one clay-court title in his career — at a 250 in Umag (2022), ironically against Alcaraz. Sinner is going for his third consecutive Masters 1000 title in 2026 and has dropped just one set this week en route to the quarters. Even though Sinner is showing impeccable form and is riding a 17-match winning streak, Alcaraz is the better clay-court player and he will look to replicate his own superiority over the ATP field now that clay court-season is underway. The defending champ collects his ninth Masters 1000 and fifth on dirt. Alcaraz in 3: 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4.
Alcaraz in 3 but Sinner will take the first set.
This comment is demonstrably false: “This is also Alcaraz’s last real chance to maintain the top ranking before Sinner inevitably takes over later in April and then surely holds onto it for a while.”
Sinner is not playing Barcelona next week, Carlos is and is defending 350 points. If he takes the title, he nets 500 points and immediately regains the #1 ranking. He’s also not defending any points in Madrid the following week. It is possible Carlos retains the #1 ranking through the entire clay season.
Was never possible for him to retain #1 Carlos even admitted this days ago
Alacraz is a waste of talent. He plays trash occasionally and the fact he is unable to win a set vs Sinner and makes 55* unforced errors should show other player he is not the player people think he is
I called Sinner in 2 was so predictable
I guess it depends on your standards, Mr Realist. Personally I don’t think someone is wasting their talent if they have an off day now and then. Carlos seems to have a better work-life balance than many players, which is great for mental health and general enjoyment, plus prevents burnout. He’s already achieved a ton in tennis, and he’ll probably achieve a ton more before he’s done.
Our culture has unhealthy expectations of people having to perform like automatons. Life is short and we don’t have to make ourselves miserable if we can avoid it. I say that as a recovering perfectionist who struggled with burnout for that reason and now I’m glad to see it when young people under pressure have healthier attitudes. It’s something I admire about Alcaraz, and also Bublik.
great picks by us!
Love reading your predictions every match. It wasn’t a bad prediction at all. It what mostly everyone thought
Ricky’s sarcasm hard to spot at first.I remember saying Bublik had a great chance at Gstaad at altitude , he replied ‘ no way he wins a match ‘ In fact he got back to back titles
Yeah, I really enjoy reading all the background and reasoning, and am glad I don’t have to try to predict every match, which must surely become a pain at times even if you’re really into this. I didn’t even try picking a winner here. Well done Tyler though!
All three of u picked Alcaraz (so did i, but felt it would be very close)
That’s the problem with convincing arguments!😜
Makes the rest of the clay season very interesting
Yeah there was a very compelling argument fir Alcaraz over Sinner at Wimby , and look what happened!
I think this time around. Sinner was just playing so machine like Alcaraz only needed to be off his game a wee bit
Do you reckon that’s why Alcaraz is the more popular player with many? That he’s visibly human with emotions and ups and downs, and often radiates enjoyment, whereas Sinner plays more poker-faced and machine-like? My other half unkindly calls him a personality vacuum. I wouldn’t think he’s that, off court anyway. Some people just handle tennis differently. I know Elena Rybakina got a lot of flak just for being emotionally restrained and having low-key victory celebrations (which I personally find refreshing).
Yeah agree. Ive been put off Alcaraz for the same reason. I prefer to judge them by their tennis not personality . Nothing boring about Sinners game or his results.
I find Alcaraz’s demeanour appealing but then I’m part Italian and grew up partly in Italy where I enjoyed that about people. Sinner is atypical as an Italian like that and also in appearance, but then he’s from the far north near Austria and is probably more Austrian/German than Italian physically and culturally. He actually acts more Nordic than Italian, more like Ruud than say Berettini or Cobolli. Also more like Andreas Seppi, who was himself from the far north of Italy. Now that was another player I liked!
Yeah I knew Sinner reminded me of someone,it’s Seppi,another atypical Italian . Both so un-Fognini like
An Italian with red hair definitely not what you expect