Miami R4 previews and predictions: Alcaraz vs. Paul, Rublev vs. Sinner

The entire fourth-round schedule at the Miami Masters will be played on Tuesday, with quarterfinal spots at stake. Among the headliners are Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul and Andrey Rublev vs. Jannik Sinner.

(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (16) Tommy Paul

Alcaraz is looking to defend his 2022 Miami Open title, complete the Sunshine Double after triumphing earlier this month in Indian Wells, and remain atop the ATP rankings. Yes, the 19-year-old has a lot to do at this Masters 1000 tournament and so far he is doing it well. Alcaraz has advanced with a 6-0, 6-2 rout of Facundo Bagnis and a 6-0, 7-6(5) victory over Dusan Lajovic.

Up next for the top seed on Tuesday is a fourth-round showdown against Paul. Their only previous meeting came last summer in Montreal, where Paul pulled off a 6-7(4), 7-6(7), 6-3 upset after three hours and 24 minutes. Of course, all Alcaraz has done since then is win the U.S. Open (and several other tournaments) and become No. 1 in the world. Paul is also playing the best tennis of his career (up to 19th in the rankings thanks in part to a semifinal run at the Australian Open), but Alcaraz is simply on a different level. Any opponent on tour outside of Novak Djokovic right now needs the Spaniard to have an off day to have a real chance, and he hasn’t had an off day unrelated to an injury in many months.

Pick: Alcaraz in 2

(10) Jannik Sinner vs. (6) Andrey Rublev

Rublev and Sinner will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers on Tuesday. The head-to-head series is all tied up at two wins apiece, although both times Rublev advanced it was via retirement (Vienna in 2020 and last year’s French Open). Sinner got the job done 6-2, 7-6(6) at the 2021 Barcelona event and 5-7, 6-1, 6-3 at the 2022 Monte-Carlo Masters.

Perhaps nowhere is the 21-year-old Italian better than he is in Miami, although the sample size is small. He is 10-1 lifetime in non-retirement matches with a runner-up performance in 2021, a quarterfinal showing last spring, and wins this fortnight over Laslo Djere and Grigor Dimitrov. Rublev did well to destroy Miomir Kecmanovic 6-1, 6-2 on Sunday, but that is a favorable matchup for the Russian in which he can bash balls from the baseline without much resistance. Sinner can hit just as big as Rublev, serve bigger, and get into the net. The world No. 11 will make his opponent play defense, and that is not what Rublev likes to do.

Pick: Sinner in 2