Miami R4 previews and predictions: Medvedev vs. Koepfer, Arnaldi vs. Machac

Half of the eight remaining players in the bottom half of the Miami draw are unseeded. That includes Dominik Koepfer, who runs into Daniil Medvedev on Tuesday. Matteo Arnaldi and Tomas Machac are also in fourth-round action.

Dominik Koepfer vs. (3) Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev probably figured to see Ugo Humbert on the other side of the net in his fourth-round match at the Miami Open on Tuesday. That won’t be the case, however, and the Russian has to happy about it since he trails Humbert 3-1 in their head-to-head series. Instead, it’s Koepfer–who upset Humbert 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 on Sunday. Medvedev and Koepfer have squared off twice, both times at the U.S. Open. The current world No. 4 prevailed 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 7-6(2) in 2019 and 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 in 2021.

Koepfer hopes that his best-ever level of tennis will help him turn the tide. The former Tulane standout is one spot off his career-high ranking of 49th that he achieved earlier this month, and he is projected to reach No. 43 if he wins on Tuesday. So far in Miami the German left-hander has defeated Marcos Giron, Sebastian Baez, and Humbert. Medvedev followed up a first-round by with routine victories over Marton Fucsovics and Cameron Norrie. The No. 3 seed loves the conditions in Miami–he is the defending champion, after all–and should end Koepfer’s run without too much trouble.

Pick: Medvedev in 2

Tomas Machac vs. Matteo Arnaldi

Arnaldi vs. Machac may be an all-unseeded matchup, but it should be extremely entertaining. Both guys are playing the best tennis of their careers–especially Arnaldi. The 23-year-old Italian has soared to No. 38 in the rankings thanks to a red-hot finish in 2023 and 10 main-tour wins already in 2024. Arnaldi earned his place in the Miami fourth round by beating Arthur Fils, Alexander Bublik, and Denis Shapovalov without dropping a single set.

Machac took a much different path to the second week in South Beach. After ousting Darwin Blanch and Andrey Rublev, the 23-year-old Czech outlasted Andy Murray in three hours and 28 minutes on Sunday–the third-longest best-of-three match in tournament history. Machac is playing great but has not been quite as consistent as Arnaldi, plus it won’t be easy to bounce back from what he called “the toughest match of my career.” Look for Arnaldi to have the edge in a high-quality contest.

Pick: Arnaldi in 3