Miami R2 previews and predictions: Tsitsipas vs. Shapovalov, Bublik vs. Arnaldi

The seeds come out to play on Friday in Miami, where one-handed backhands will be on display in the match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Denis Shapovalov. Alexander Bublik and Matteo Arnaldi are also on the second-round schedule.

(PR) Denis Shapovalov vs. (10) Stefanos Tsitsipas

A few years ago a showdown between Tsitsipas and Shapovalov would be worthy of the business end of any tournament–even a Grand Slam. Interestingly, however, they have faced each other on five previous occasions and not once have they met in the quarterfinals or later. That streak will continue at the Miami Open on Friday, when they collide in the second round. Shapovalov leads the head-to-head series 3-2, including 3-0 on hard courts. However, they have squared off only once since 2020–when Tsitsipas prevailed 6-3, 6-2 last spring on the red clay of Barcelona. Shapovalov’s wins have come in 2018 (Australian Open), 2019 (Miami), and 2020 (ATP Cup).

In 2024, both players are a long way off their best level–especially Shapovalov. The 24-year-old Canadian missed much of last season due to a knee injury and finds himself down at No. 126 in the rankings. He is just 3-7 so far this year but did well to scrape past recent Cordoba champion Luciano Darderi 6-3, 6-7(3), 6-4 on Wednesday afternoon. Tsitsipas may be rounding into form, as his last three results are a semifinal in Los Cabos, a quarterfinal in Acapulco, and a fourth round in Indian Wells. Although that’s nothing great relative to the 11th-ranked Greek’s lofty standards, it’s enough to build some confidence. Look for Tsitsipas to get the best of a match that is enticing on paper but may not amount to much on the court.

Pick: Tsitsipas in 2

(17) Alexander Bublik vs. Matteo Arnaldi

Bublik vs. Arnaldi is a much different story, as both players are in outstanding form. Up to a career-high ranking of 18th in the world, Bublik is 14-6 this season with a title in Montpellier and a runner-up performance in Dubai. The 26-year-old Kazakh is coming off a third-round showing in Indian Wells, where he defeated Jerry Shang before losing to a red-hot Alex de Minaur 7-5, 6-0.

Arnaldi also registers at a best-ever ranking of No. 38. The 23-year-old Italian won 20 matches on the main tour in 2023, having previously won zero. He has also won eight this season, including a 6-3, 6-4 defeat of fellow rising star Arthur Fils during first-round action on Wednesday. Arnaldi returns serve extremely well and he will benefit from having already played a match in the tough Miami conditions, so Bublik may be on March Madness upset alert.

Pick: Arnaldi in 3