Miami R1 previews and predictions: Sonego vs. Thiem, Giron vs. Garin

Dominic Thiem will try to get his season off the ground when he goes up against Lorenzo Sonego in round one of the Miami Masters on Thursday. First-round action is also wrapping up with Marcos Giron vs. Cristian Garin.

Lorenzo Sonego vs. (WC) Dominic Thiem

Sonego and Thiem will be squaring off for the third time in their careers when they clash in the Miami Open first round on Thursday. Their most recent encounter was a memorable one; Sonego prevailed in front of the home crowd at the 2021 Rome Masters, winning a 6-4, 6-7(5), 7-6(5) thriller that lasted three hours and 24 minutes. The first meeting also took place on clay, with Thiem getting the job done 6-3, 7-6(6) at the 2019 Kitzbuhel.

Unfortunately for Thiem, he is nowhere near the same player now that he was for those previous two matches. Shortly following the Rome loss to Sonego, the Austrian sustained a wrist injury that kept him on the sideline for almost a year. His comeback late in 2022 showed signs of promise, but in 2023 Thiem is a disastrous 1-7 with a victory only at the expense of world No. 51 Alex Molcan. Sonego has been mediocre at best this season, but almost all of his losses have come as an underdog and all five of his wins have come over opponents currently ranked in the top 80–including one over Felix Auger-Aliassime. The 59th-ranked Italian is playing well enough to extend Thiem’s woes.

Pick: Sonego in 2

Marcos Giron vs. (Q) Cristian Garin

Giron and Garin will also be going head-to-head for the third time on Thursday. Garin has won both of their previous encounters; 6-3, 6-4 in 2017 U.S. Open qualifying and 6-1, 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 at the 2021 French Open. Of course, neither result is too concerning for Giron. The first one came before he had established himself as a top 100 player on the ATP Tour and the second came on Garin’s clay-court stomping grounds.

The edge this time around probably goes to Giron, who is 8-7 in in 2023 and has already advanced to three quarterfinals–two on American hard courts. Garin emerged from a slump to perform admirably in Indian Wells (reached the fourth round as a qualifier), but conditions in the desert were almost clay-court-like and they won’t be as favorable for him in Miami. Giron generally plays his best tennis at home, so the 71st-ranked American should advance.

Pick: Giron in 3