Expert picks are back for a surprising matchup in the Miami Open final on Sunday afternoon. A three-team panel previews the upcoming Jannik Sinner vs. Hubert Hurakcz showdown and makes its predictions.
Ricky: The Big 3’s absence plus more than a few upsets have resulted in a most improbable title match–but also one that provides plenty of intrigue. And it should be a good one, too, as it looks pretty even on paper. Hurakcz is money in south Florida, having captured the Delray Beach to begin this season in addition to a Miami run that includes upsets of Denis Shapovalov, Milos Raonic, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Andrey Rublev. In between those two events, though, there was a fair amount of inconsistency. Despite his youth at 19 years old, Sinner seems to be the more reliable player. It feels like he is quite simply immune to pressure. And I don’t see nerves being a factor on Sunday, as it’s not like Sinner is playing against Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, or Roger Federer in front of thousands of fans. The Italian has won two of his last six tournaments and he has a great chance to make it three out of seven. Look for Sinner to come up clutch at the end of what is sure to be an entertaining and competitive contest. Sinner in 3: 7-5, 4-6, 6-4.
Cheryl: This definitely isn’t the all-Russian Miami final I envisioned at the start of the tournament. In an era of unprecedented top-player dominance, a Masters final that features competitors outside the top 30 is as intriguing as it is surprising. Sinner is the better shot-maker–a likely superstar-in-the-making–but he has also had a more favorable draw. There has not been much more than the likes of Karen Khachanov and Roberto Bautista Agut in his way. That’s certainly not what could be considered an easy path, but Hurkacz slayed some legitimate dragons en route to the final. He took out Shapovalov, Raonic, and then posted back-to-back victories over Tsitsipas and Rublev. With the server-friendly courts in Miami and Hurkacz’s current form, the Pole should win more free points than Sinner–an edge that can’t be underestimated. While Sinner has a bigger upside in the long run, Miami feels like Hurkacz’s tournament. Hurkacz in 3: 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(4).
Pete (Tennis Acumen): As tennis and the sporting world continue to meander through the challenges of completing live competitions, consider the fact that the winner of this match will have one more Miami Open title than Nadal and concurrently own an equal number of Masters 1000 titles as Stan Wawrinka. Both men have been on impressive upward trajectories the last few years on the ATP Tour. Throughout the string of impressive victories in the last four rounds over Shapovalov, Raonic, Tsitsipas, and Rublev, the 24-year-old hit 39 aces with just six double-faults. Twice Hurkacz has come back to win after dropping the opening set. Similarly, Sinner has also come back twice to win a match in this event after facing an opening-set deficit–defeating Khachanov in the third round and Bautista Agut in the semifinals. As a result we have the 21st-seeded Italian and the 26th-seeded Pole in the Final of a Masters 1000. Hurkacz had the more difficult route to the final, and as a result his confidence is peaking. Hurkacz in 3: 6-4, 3-6, 6-4.
who ya got?
This is almost 50/50 with a very marginal edge to Sinner. Probably 54/46.
There’s no prior H2H and sample sample size for location is not enough for Sinner.
I’d rather be on Sinner than Hurkacz due to the reliability factor but this is not a match I would want to be on.
In actual fact, I’d have to say from a betting perspective, Hurkacz represents better value.
Hurcakz beating Rublev was an anomaly, it shouldn’t have happened.
Sinner should win.