The College Football Playoff will conclude with the National Championship between the Miami Hurricanes and Indiana Hoosiers on Monday night. Although the Hurricanes coincidentally have home-field advantage, they are still massive underdogs as the No. 10 seed going up against the top-ranked Hoosiers.
Let’s dive into my Miami vs. Indiana picks.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers odds
Money line: Miami +320 / Indiana -260
Spread: Miami +7.5 (-106) / Indiana -7.5 (-114)
Total: Over 47.5 (-110) / Under 47.5 (-110)
Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers best bet #1: Indiana -7.5 (-114)
Indiana is simply destroying opponents. It clobbered Alabama 38-3 in the quarterfinals and drubbed Oregon 56-22 in the semis in a matchup that was not even as competitive as the 34-point margin indicates. Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy and has not slowed down in the CFP. Through two outings he has eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Don’t forget about the Hoosiers’ running game, too. Roman Hemby has 1,060 yards and seven touchdowns; Kaelon Black has 961 yards and 10 TDs. On the other side of the ball, head coach Curt Cignetti’s defense ranks third nationally in rushing success rate allowed and second in opponents’ EPA per rush.
Miami has gotten hot at the right time, but this is a team that was not even expected to be in the College Football Playoff when the selection show started. Despite taking regular-season losses to Louisville and SMU, the Hurricanes snagged a spot in the field of 12 ahead of Notre Dame. Can they cap off their dream run on Monday? If so, they will have to do it without Elija Lofton after the tight end suffered an injury against Ole Miss. Damari Brown, perhaps the team’s best defensive back, is questionable after missing the semifinals. Fellow DB Xavier Lucas is suspended for the first half of the championship game due to a targeting penalty in the Fiesta Bowl.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers best player prop bet: Malachi Toney Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Hoosiers’ defense is outstanding, but it can be at least somewhat vulnerable in the secondary. Since Week 9 of the regular season, Indiana is outside the top 90 in passing-downs PPA and 55th in passing-downs success rate allowed. The unit is also outside the top 100 in passing-downs explosiveness allowed since the end of October.
Perhaps most importantly, the game script likely calls for a lot of passing by the Hurricanes — whether they like it or not. Chances are good that they will be trailing from start to finish. If so, Carson Beck will have to air it out early and often. Toney comes in with 99 catches for 1,089 yards and nine touchdowns. He has racked up at least 81 yards in three of the last five games, including performances of 126 and 146 yards during this stretch.
Hoo Hoo Hoosiers!!