Thursday Night Football in Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season is a showdown in the AFC East between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills.
Let’s dive into my Dolphins vs. Bills predictions.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills best bet #1: Over 49.5 (-110)
The Dolphins are in absolute shambles after two weeks, with losses to the Colts and Patriots. Miami allowed 33 points to both of those teams, neither of which will ever be confused with an offensive juggernaut. If Indianapolis and New England can do that to head coach Mike McDaniel’s team, just imagine what Josh Allen and Buffalo are capable of inflicting. Adding insult to injury–or vice versa–the Dolphins have four defensive starters who are questionable, including defensive end Chop Robinson. Now the Fins have to face a Bills offense that leads the NFL in total offense with 900 yards.
What’s also worth noting is that Buffalo is putting up points regardless of what Allen does. He did basically everything against Baltimore in Week 1 en route to a 41-point onslaught; he did basically nothing in Week 2 and the Bills still pinned 30 points on the Jets. The only issue for the home team is on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver, linebacker Matt Milano, and cornerback Taron Johnson are all questionable for Thursday. The Bills gave up 40 points to the Ravens, so this is not a unit that inspires much confidence. Buffalo will probably do most of the heavy lifting, but even Miami can contribute to the over.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills best player prop bet: Khalil Shakir Over 40.5 receiving yards (-113)
Shakir was targeted only twice and made just one reception against the Jets. That’s not going to cut it in the long run for Buffalo, so count on head coach Sean McDermott’s squad making a clear effort to get its WR1 the ball early and often in Week 3.
Shakir’s outing against the Jets ended a four-game streak dating back to last season’s playoffs with exactly six catches. Expect plenty of targets, catches, and yards at the expense of a Dolphins defense that ranks No. 24 against the pass through two weeks.
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