Madrid SF preview and prediction: Struff vs. Karatsev

Jan-Lennard Struff and Aslan Karatsev will be facing each other for the second time in their careers and for the second time at the 2023 Mutua Madrid Open when they meet again on Saturday–this time in far more improbable fashion than their first go-around.

Yes, they also went head-to-head in the final round of qualifying. Karatsev dominated that encounter 6-4, 6-2 to book his spot in the main draw before Struff got his place in the field of 96 as a lucky-loser entrant when Constant Lestienne withdrew. Ten days after battling out on Court 8, they will take to the Caja Magica for what will be one of the biggest matches of each man’s career.

Although Karatsev is the qualifier and Struff is the lucky loser, Karatsev’s run has been even more surprising. The Russian had been just 4-7 at the ATP level in 2023 prior to this fortnight and he is struggling all the way down at No. 121 in the world. From pretty much out of nowhere, though, he has advanced with victories over Laslo Djere, Botic van de Zandschulp, Alex de Minaur, Daniil Medvedev, and Zhizhen Zhang. Only De Minaur managed to take even a single set.

Struff has been every bit as good as he has been lucky in Madrid. The 33-year-old German is the third-ever lucky loser to reach the semifinals of a Masters 1000 following defeats of Lorenzo Sonego, Ben Shelton, Dusan Lajovic, Pedro Cachin, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. His win over Tsitsipas was especially impressive, of course, and he struck 14 aces while getting broken only once in the process.

It’s never to easy to beat the same opponent twice in the same tournament, and it really isn’t easy to take down Struff in these conditions. The world No. 65 is suited perfectly for the high altitude of Madrid and he should also be far more motivated in his first Masters 1000 semi than he was in qualifying.

Look for Struff to serve his way to a win–and to revenge.

Pick: Struff in 3