Rafael Nadal has gone from favorite to underdog and now back to favorite in his Madrid matches, this one against Pedro Cachin on Monday. Third-round competition also features a showdown between Daniil Medvedev and Sebastian Korda.
(PR) Rafael Nadal vs. Pedro Cachin
Nadal was unspectacular in his comeback tournament at the Barcelona Open last week, but with plenty of matches under his belt it looks like a much improved Nadal at the Mutua Madrid Open. Alex de Minaur on the other side of the net has been the litmus test. Nadal lost to the 11th-ranked Aussie 7-5, 6-1 in Barcelona but avenged that defeat with a 7-6(6), 6-3 victory on Saturday. The 37-year-old Spaniard preceded that statement-making result with a 6-1, 6-0 beatdown of Darwin Blanch.
Having a day off in between matches at this Masters 1000 event certainly helps–something Nadal did not have in Barcelona. As such, he should be well rested for a surprising encounter with Cachin on Monday. Cachin had been on a shocking 15-match losing streak heading into this fortnight, but from out of nowhere he has knocked off Sebastian Ofner and Frances Tiafoe. This is some much-needed success for the 91st-ranked Argentine, but it’s also worth noting that both Ofner and Tiafoe have been terrible in 2024. If Nadal plays anywhere close to his level that was on display against De Minaur, this will be one-way traffic from start to finish.
Pick: Nadal in 2
(3) Daniil Medvedev vs. (25) Sebastian Korda
Medvedev vs. Korda has already developed into quite a rivalry. They have faced each other four times, with the head-to-head series tied up at 2-2. Korda pulled off a pair of straight-set upsets in 2023 at the Australian Open and Shanghai Masters, but Medvedev prevailed 6-4, 5-7, 6-3 earlier this spring at the Indian Wells Masters. The Russian’s first win over Korda came via a 4-6, 6-1, 6-3 decision at the 2021 Paris Indoors.
Clay certainly doesn’t help Medvedev, but at the same time he knows good and well how to play on this surface. The world No. 4 captured the Rome Masters title last year and he is a former French Open quarterfinalist (2021). Medvedev faced a tough test in his Madrid opener on Saturday and passed it in the form of a 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 victory over Matteo Arnaldi. A difficult draw continues with Korda, who is very good on clay and trounced Max Purcell 6-3, 6-3 in round two. Still, the 26th-ranked American took only three games in a Monte-Carlo loss to Jannik Sinner and then fell to Gregoire Barrere 6-4, 6-4 in his opening match at the Bucharest ATP 250. This matchup always seems to be competitive, but Medvedev should have the edge.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
WWW?
Rafa in 2; Korda w the upset …in 3.
very possible
Shelton in 2 (but closer than you’re suggesting)
Korda in 3 (and maybe 2)
Mensik in 3 (probably hits a few more winners at the right time)
Khachanov in 2 (but competitive)
Montiero in 3 (Needs to replicate previous performance. Lajovic and Tsitsipas were sitting ducks)
Norrie in 3 (upset on the cards)
Nadal in 2 (just)
Sinner in 2 (formality)
Norrie?
Most of the results were a deviation from what should’ve happened except
Montiero
Mensik
Shelton should’ve closed it out in 2
Korda in 2
Norrie was up a break in the 2nd and should’ve held on given Ruud is likely fatigued
And Nadal probably should’ve won in 2 also.
Sometimes that’s the way the dice rolls.
Shelton loss was really bad