Madrid R3 previews and predictions: Humbert vs. Struff, Paul vs. Cerundolo

Both Ugo Humbert and Jan-Lennard Struff are red hot right now, but one will be exiting the Madrid Masters 1000 on Sunday. Tommy Paul and Francisco Cerundolo are also aiming for a place in the round of 16.

(13) Ugo Humbert vs. (23) Jan-Lennard Struff

It could be one of the highest-quality matches of the tournament when Humbert and Struff square off at the Mutua Madrid Open on Sunday. This marks just their second-ever encounter, with Struff having cruised 6-3, 6-1 on the indoor hard courts of Sofia in 2022. This one promises to be much more competitive, as Humbert has been in the form of his life dating back to last summer. The 14th-ranked Frenchman ended the 2023 campaign with a title in Metz and has already lifted trophies this year in Marseille and Dubai. Humbert continued his winning ways with a 6-3, 6-3 defeat of Botic van de Zandschulp on Friday.

Struff has now advanced at least two rounds (byes included) in five consecutive events. This stretch includes his maiden ATP title this past week in Munich, where he ousted Van de Zandschulp, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Holger Rune, and Taylor Fritz all in straight sets. As if that isn’t reason enough for a ton of confidence, Struff now finds himself in Madrid–where he went all the way to the final last spring (lost to Carlos Alcaraz). The 24th-ranked German loves clay and fast conditions at high altitude are also perfect for his game, so it’s no surprise that he took care of Jaume Munar 6-1, 7-5 on Friday. As well as Humbert is playing, it’s going to take a special effort to stop Struff at this tournament.

Pick: Struff in 3

(15) Tommy Paul vs. (21) Francisco Cerundolo

Strangely, Paul vs. Cerundolo has–outside of the top players in the world–become one of the tour’s more frequent and also entertaining rivalries over the past couple of seasons. They have faced each other four times, first in 2022 and on three occasions last year. The head-to-head series is tied at 2-2, as they split a pair of Eastbourne encounters to go along with a Queen’s Club win for Cerundolo and Toronto Masters success for Paul. All four of their matches have required three sets.

Cerundolo may be able to swing the pendulum back in his favor because he is winning matches again following a borderline hopeless first two months of the 2024 campaign. The 22nd-ranked Argentine has won at least one match in six of his last seven events after defeating Fabian Marozsan 6-2, 7-6(5) in the Madrid second round. Meanwhile, Paul suffered an ankle injury in Miami (retired against Martin Damm) and did not play at all on clay prior to this fortnight. The 16th-ranked American did well to beat Lukas Klein 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-4 on Friday, but this is still a great opportunity for Cerundolo.

Pick: Cerundolo in 3