Madrid R2 previews and predictions: Alcaraz vs. Ruusuvuori, Rublev vs. Wawrinka

Carlos Alcaraz will begin his Madrid Masters title defense when he faces Emil Ruusuvori during second-round action on Friday afternoon. Andrey Rublev and Stan Wawrinka are also set for a blockbuster matchup.

(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. Emil Ruusuvuori

It’s hard–if not impossible–to pick against Alcaraz at the Mutua Madrid Open. Not only is he the top seed and defending champion, but Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are also absent along with Jannik Sinner. It all sets up nicely for the 19-year-old Spaniard, who is 23-2 this season and has already won three titles (Buenos Aires, Indian Wells, and Barcelona).

Alcaraz doesn’t have the easiest opening match on his hands, however. Ruusuvuori has won 14 ATP-level matches in 2023 and he is up to 41st in the rankings, so he wasn’t too far off Madrid seeding. The 24-year-old opened with a 7-6(6), 7-6(4) victory over Ugo Humbert, so he has a match under his belt that got him accustomed to the fast conditions. Ruusuvuori leads the head-to-head series 1-0, too, having defeated Alcaraz 6-4, 2-6, 7-5 at the 2021 Miami Open. The Finn has improved marginally since then, whereas Alcaraz rise over the past two years has obviously been meteoric. Playing at home and on clay, which is Ruusuvuori’s least favorite surface, the world No. 2 should roll.

Pick: Alcaraz in 2

Stan Wawrinka vs. (5) Andrey Rublev

Rublev and Wawrinka will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers when second-round action gets underway on Friday. Wawrinka has won two of their three previous meetings, but they have not faced each other since 2020 and they have never clashed on clay.

At this point in their respective careers, Rublev is obviously a massive favorite. The world No. 6 is 21-9 this season and is coming off back-to-back finals, which saw him win his biggest-ever title in Monte-Carlo before finishing runner-up in Banja Luka. Wawrinka is a decent 11-8 in 2023 following a 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-6(4) defeat of Maxime Cressy on Wednesday. That was a decent result but not overly confidence-boosting. Rublev is red hot right now and should be able to beat an opponent who is just 5-5 in his last 10 matches at this Madrid tournament.

Pick: Rublev in 2