Madrid R3 previews and predictions: Rune vs. Davidovich Fokina, Khachanov vs. Bautista Agut

Spaniards Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Roberto Bautista Agut will try to reach the second week in Madrid on Sunday. They have tough third-round matches on their hands with Holger Rune and Karen Khachanov, respectively.

(29) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. (6) Holger Rune

Rune is rolling along nicely during this clay-court swing, but to say that it hasn’t been easy would be a gross understatement. The 19-year-old Dane finished runner-up in Monte-Carlo, outlasting Jannik Sinner in a semifinal thriller before losing a similarly wild one to Andrey Rublev. In the Munich final one week later, he saved four championship points and Botic van de Zandschulp failed to serve out the match three different times as Rune finally triumphed in a third-set tiebreaker. In his first match at the Mutua Madrid Open, the world No. 7 outlasted Alexander Bublik 6-1, 4-6, 7-6(9).

Although Rune is playing well, he probably isn’t riding on a full tank of gas. That could make things difficult against Davidovich Fokina during third-round action on Sunday. Davidovich Fokina is also in fine form, coming off a quarterfinal effort in Barcelona–where he beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Emil Ruusuvuori before falling to Carlos Alcaraz 7-6(5), 6-4. The 35th-ranked Spaniard disposed of countryman Albert Ramos-Vinolas 6-3, 6-4 on Friday, so he is well rested heading into Sunday. It should be a lively encounter between two fiery encounters who both thrive in boisterous atmospheres, and this will surely be one with the Spanish crowd rocking. It would not be a big surprise if Davidovich Fokina treats the fans to a hard-fought victory.

Pick: Davidovich Fokina in 3

(10) Karen Khachanov vs. (20) Roberto Bautista Agut

Khachanov and Bautista Agut will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers. The head-to-head series stands at 6-2 in favor of Bautista Agut, who has won three in a row and six of their last seven encounters. If there is any good news for Khachanov, it’s that he is 2-0 on clay. However, neither one of those meetings came in Madrid–where the Spaniard is playing at home and likes the fast conditions.

This could obviously go either way, but Bautista Agut should have a good chance to pull off a minor upset. The world No. 25 clearly matches up well with Khachanov and he opened in Madrid with an impressive three-set defeat of a red-hot Quentin Halys. Khachanov also won 6-3 in the third on Friday, holding off Thiago Monteiro. Another three-setter is probably in the cards, with a slight edge going to Bautista Agut.

Pick: Bautista Agut in 3