Madrid final preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Zverev

Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev will add another chapter to their extensive rivalry on Sunday — and you may have to get used to it with Carlos Alcaraz sidelined by an injury.

Sinner and Zverev will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers when they battle for the Mutua Madrid Open title. The head-to-head series stands at 9-4 in favor of Sinner, but he has been far more dominant of late than even that record would suggest. In fact, the Italian has won eight in a row since falling behind 4-1 after losing a five-set thriller at the 2023 U.S. Open. Sinner has taken a whopping 12 consecutive sets from Zverev dating back to Vienna last fall, with only one of those 12 going to a tiebreaker.

Zverev will at least take some confidence from playing in Madrid, which is without question one of his favorite spots on tour. The third-ranked German is 30-6 lifetime at the Caja Magica with two titles (2018, 2021) and one runner-up finish (2022). He is back in another final after defeating Mariano Navone, Terence Atmane, Jakub Mensik, Flavio Cobolli, and Alexander Blockx.


Sinner has been the heavy title favorite ever since Alcaraz was forced to withdraw from Madrid with his wrist issue. The world No. 1 has played every bit like it, too. Sinner dropped his opening set of the tournament to Benjamin Bonzi, but he recovered to win that match 6-7(6), 6-1, 6-4 and then mostly cruised past Elmer Moller, Cameron Norrie, Rafael Jodar, and Arthur Fils.

If there was a place where Zverev was going to beat Sinner, it would probably be Madrid. Unfortunately for the 29-year-old, there probably is no such place — at least not in the foreseeable future.

Pick: Sinner in 2

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16 Comments on Madrid final preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Zverev

  1. Good God Zverev talks absolute (conceited) nonsense.
    Says Sinner much better than Alcaraz( wot rubbish) and big gap between him and Alcaraz, Novak and Zverev himself ( shriek of wild laughter on my part here) as next 3 then another big gap. What on earth is he on…apart from fumes of his huge ego….

      • What are you smoking, he’s never lost 0 and 0 to Sinner, the closest was 0 and 1 in the Paris 25′ SF. Plus the last 4 matches before this had a 6-4 or a TB, then in Vienna Zverev took a set and lost the 3rd 7-5.

  2. Frame of reference thing. From Zverev’s perspectives that’s how it looks. He’s never really struck me as having s bloated ego. He actually is an excellent and ultra-consistent player. But not in the same league as Sinner, and with a sense of resignation about that. Also not a very joyful player, but a good role model for people living with diabetes.

    • Yeah agree. Zverev is an excellent player who deserved to win a Slam .
      Theres a disrespect from certain quarters possibly because of the allegations against him . Or some people just cant see beyond the very elite of the game as being any good at all.

      • Re the allegations, we aren’t flies on the wall, and while misogyny and violence against women are huge issues, both of which I’ve personally experienced enough to change my life trajectory and even my brain wiring, the Zverev case gave me pause for thought in a way the Kyrgios case did not. Kyrgios is a fairly obvious narcissist who has said plenty of misogynistic things. In my personal experience that’s what many male bullies are like. Zverev does not run off his mouth like that nor have I heard him make disrespectful statements about women.

        So my question is about the line we draw between stupid mistakes everyone makes in early relationships which may include behaviour of which one is later ashamed and which one learns from, and a systematic pattern of abuse which is about power tripping and entitlement rather than inexperience and poor skills. If we cancel people for doing stupid things when new to relationships in their teens and early 20s, we’ll all get cancelled. On the other hand we need to rein in people with coercive and/or violent patterns who do terrible damage to their partners and families.

        I’m not omniscient, but I personally give Zverev the benefit of the doubt, from what I’ve read about it and also because he doesn’t set off my red flag detector which is pretty good these days — although I don’t expect it’s perfect, and everyone has to evaluate for themselves.

  3. I don’t think it’s for us to decide whether a player deserves to win a GS, you don’t get what you deserve in this world, you get what you earn

    • Stepping outside of tennis for a minute: the general and often repeated idea that you get what you earn is cultural indoctrination designed to keep poor people who can’t get ahead despite their best efforts blaming themselves for what are systemic injustices that benefit the minority at the top. Many people do not get even what they earn, while other people certainly didn’t earn what they materially possess. The statement is weaponised to blame the most vulnerable people in society, conceal vast power imbalances and make it seem OK that there are billionaires who don’t give their starvation wage employees what they have actually earned, let alone toilet breaks, and that some people sit on golden toilets they think they have earned while others are homeless (and didn’t “earn” that).

      Now getting back to tennis: it’s a little fairer than general society, but still has entrenched systemic injustices, such as the top couple of players generally getting more favourable match slots and conditions than average, for reasons of making money off them. IMO players earn the prize money, but they don’t “earn” favourable treatment — top players just generally get it. As an Australian I’m very aware who cooks in the midday heat at the AO every year and who doesn’t — and what nearly happened to Sinner at the last iteration when he played a midday slot for once — and how they closed the roof, coincidentally or not, exactly when he was about to lose.

      As regards Al’s comment on Zverev in his view having deserved to win a slam, I think it’s fair to have that as a personal opinion, especially given that had Zverev been born at a more favourable point in history it’s likely he would have — say pre Big Three, or even a couple of years later than he actually was. I think it’s fair to think he could have snagged one like Cilic or del Potro did, or Pat Cash etc. We don’t know for sure but I don’t think it’s wrong to speculate.😉

    • Well we’re talking tennis here, the scoring system is such that often the better player wins more points but still loses .
      Its interesting the logic on display here . There have been players who ‘would have won a lot more Slams but were injury prevented’ .
      Anyone who was in three Slam finals and even led by two sets, I think its reasonable to have the opinion that he deserved at least one of them

      • And now he has to play his brain that had those experiences, as well as the opponents, when he gets to finals. Neurologically that makes it more difficult. If he could do an “Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind” he’d have better chances in the time he has left.

        • So much empathy for a guy who has been credibly accused of serious abuse by 2 women and who launched a terrifying assault against an umpire for no reason. His temper is shocking and many commentators ie Wilander ( among many others) said he should have served a long ban and should have been made to go into rehab.
          He’s always been a smooth talker so I don’t see that what he says means anything much. Plenty of abusers appear respectful of women in public anyway;it’s what they do in private that matters.
          I really don’t see per Al’s comment why I should respect him in the slightest. Respect is earned it’s not a right.
          Also, it’s well known he would come up with conceited and arrogant things on court. ” this is my court.. ” was one I remember before someone had the good sense to beat him. He was always coupled with Tsitsi early on and I always thought they were both arrogant and vain.
          Don’t get the comparison with Delpo who did beat Fed to win a slam and would have won more if he wasn’t constantly injured. Great player and great bloke!

          • I was only saying he was a very good tennis player no other judgement ,I respect him for that , could well be truth in his criticisms but I didnt go there.
            Could also bring up the Cart Horse here… another decent player I enjoy watching …similar disrespect for him , (wasnt it something to do with his girlfriend? ) but I dont really care about that. He’s improved his movement no end

  4. I generally discuss a player’s tennis not their personality/ life away from tennis. Of course their behaviour on court is important. Nearly all of them fall short there.Meddy is one of the worse but he’s amusing as well so gets away with it

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