Indian Wells SF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Paul

In the relatively forgotten BNP Paribas semifinal matchup compared to Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul will battle on Saturday for a place in the championship of the season’s first Masters 1000 tournament.

As usual, Paul has quietly gone about his business and avoided any chaos–such as what we witnessed on Thursday with a bee invasion during the Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev match followed by Medvedev’s mockery of Holger Rune’s short shorts. The no-nonsense American booked his spot in the final four by beating Alex Michelsen, Ugo Humbert, Luca Nardi, and Casper Ruud. Only Ruud has managed to take a single set off Paul in Indian Wells. The world No. 17 is now 15-4 this season and is one win away from reaching a third consecutive final on U.S. soil (champion in Dallas, runner-up in Delray Beach).

Aside from his brief spat with Rune, Medvedev has made less of a fuss in the desert than he did en route to the final last year–when he complained about the slow conditions to anyone and everyone who would listen. Indian Wells still isn’t playing fast, but by all accounts it’s faster than it was in 2023. Medvedev has capitalized with victories over Rune, Roberto Carballes Baena, Sebastian Korda, and Grigor Dimitrov. Like Paul, the Russian has dropped just one set (during a 6-4, 5-7, 6-3 defeat of Korda).

There are two problems for Paul: 1) Medvedev is playing great; 2) it’s a bad matchup. The world No. 4 leads the head-to-head series 2-0 with a 3-6, 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 victory at the 2021 French Open and a 6-2, 6-1 romp this past fall in Beijing. Paul can beat many opponents with his sheer athleticism, but playing long points doesn’t work against Medvedev and Paul doesn’t have the firepower to hit through Medvedev on this surface.

This should be a high-quality contest between two in-form competitors, but Medvedev is likely to once again have the edge.

Pick: Medvedev in 2