Indian Wells semifinal expert picks: Alcaraz vs. Sinner

Expert picks are back for the Indian Wells Masters semifinals on Saturday afternoon, when Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner renew their rivalry. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.

(3) Jannik Sinner vs. (2) Carlos Alcaraz

Ricky: It doesn’t get any bigger than this. Alcaraz vs. Sinner is currently the best rivalry in tennis and Saturday will also be a rematch of the 2023 Indian Wells semifinals. The Spaniard won that contest, but Sinner has since won two straight in the head-to-head series and has become the best player in the world–even if the rankings don’t yet say it. The third-ranked Italian is on a 19-match winning streak and is 29-1 in his last 30 matches dating back to the fall swing. He has been absolutely dominant so far at the BNP Paribas Open. Alcaraz is also in great form this fortnight, but he has been a bit hit-or-miss in 2024–and really since Wimbledon–so you don’t know exactly what he will bring to the table. You can be absolutely certain that Sinner will once again bring an insane level of tennis. It’s simply too risky to pick against Sinner right now. Sinner in 3: 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3.

Cheryl: This is the modern matchup–the one that promises great things…and even manages to deliver most of the time. With some distance from their best-of-the-year U.S. Open epic in 2022, and a grudging admission that none of their other six matches has been as good, I’ve still rarely been disappointed when these two play each other. The difference is that this time Sinner has fully come into his own, and that may present a problem for Alcaraz and the quality of the matchup. See, the 2024 Sinner is better–by an order of magnitude–from the player he was when he wrung every one of Alcaraz’s three Cs out of him in New York a couple of years ago. Sinner is undefeated in 2024 so far, while Alcaraz lost to Nicolas Jarry last month. The Italian holds a scant 4-3 record over the Spaniard on the main tour, but it feels like the gap is about to get wider. Sinner in 3: 6-3, 5-7, 6-4.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): As the younger players on the ATP Tour begin to entrench themselves firmly at or near the top of the rankings, intriguing matchups are developing. Perhaps the best of the bunch is this one: Alcaraz-Sinner. They will meet for the fourth time in the last 53 weeks and for the second time in as many years at Indian Wells. Sinner is on an absolute roll, losing just one time since the beginning of October and has dropped only one set in his last eight matches since winning the Australian Open.  Alcaraz has not won a title since his Wimbledon crown last summer–despite the Nike declaration shortly thereafter that the “Alcaraz Era” is upon us. As the Spaniard is continuing to attempt to find his game during this extended title drought (he did win six titles in the first half of 2023, including Indian Wells), attempting to defeat Sinner at this moment will likely be too large of an ask. The Italian continues to dazzle and impress in his quest to win his 20th consecutive match. Sinner in 2: 6-4, 6-3.