Indian Wells R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Raonic, Shapovalov vs. Van de Zandschulp

A marquee matchup in the Indian Wells Masters first round pits Rafael Nadal against Milos Raonic on Thursday. Day 2 features the entire top half of the draw, which also includes Denis Shapovalov and Botic van de Zandschulp.

(PR) Milos Raonic vs. (PR) Rafael Nadal

Nadal will be playing in his second tournament of the season when he takes the court for first-round action at the BNP Paribas Open on Thursday night. The Spaniard’s comeback from a year-long absence got off to relatively encouraging start in Brisbane, where he reached the quarterfinals before falling to Jordan Thompson. However, Nadal suffered a minor hip issue and missed both the Australian Open and the month of February. The 22-time Grand Slam champion made an appearance in Las Vegas this past Sunday and his Netflix Slam match against Carlos Alcaraz was–despite being an exhibition–on the encouraging side.

Up first for Nadal in the desert is Raonic, who also used a protected ranking to gain direct entry into the main draw. The head-to-head series stands at 8-2 in Nadal’s favor, although Raonic won their only previous showdown at this tournament via a 4-6, 7-6(10), 7-5 decision in the 2015 quarterfinals. At 33 years old, Raonic has struggled physically and has played sparingly on tour in recent seasons. This is one of the very few matchups that Nadal could have drawn in Indian Wells in which he is more reliable from a physical standpoint than his opponent. Both of the Canadian’s starts this season in Melbourne and Rotterdam have ended in retirement (first round and quarterfinals, respectively). Unless Raonic serves incredibly well and his physical state is somehow dramatically improved, this matchup will be a lot less interesting on the court than it is on paper.

Pick: Nadal in 2

Botic van de Zandschulp vs. (PR) Denis Shapovalov

Shapovalov and Van de Zandschulp are potential third-round opponents for Nadal, and whoever wins will have a good chance to get there with a slumping Lorenzo Musetti waiting in round two. Of course, both Shapovalov and Van de Zandschulp are also lacking confidence at the moment. Shapovalov, who is coming back from injury and ranked outside the top 100 at No. 131, is a horrendous 1-6 this season. Van de Zandschulp’s 4-7 record for the 2024 campaign has him down at No. 82.

On the bright side for Shapovalov, since his first match of the year he has lost in straight sets only once–and that was in a pair of tiebreakers against Gael Monfils in Rotterdam. The Canadian left-hander has been competitive basically every time out, and a matchup with Van de Zandschulp is among the best draws he could have received. The Dutchman simply has not recovered mentally from being on the wrong end of the collapse/comeback of the year against Holger Rune in the 2023 Munich final. This is a great opportunity for Shapovalov to get back on the winning track.

Pick: Shapovalov in 3