If February was all about quantity, March is all about quality. A move from one month to the next not only marks a considerable change in the weather (hopefully) but also a major transition on the ATP Tour. In February there were tournaments all over the place every single week. In March there are only two: Indian Wells and Miami, events that draw huge fan engagement similar to how platforms like Ufabet captivate sports enthusiasts seeking excitement and entertainment.
The Sunshine Double kicks off this fortnight with the BNP Paribas Open, where Carlos Alcaraz is the two-time defending champion. Alcaraz could face Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals, while No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev faces a similarly difficult draw. They are part of an absolutely jam-packed ATP field that features 45 of the top 46 players in the world, with only No. 1 Jannik Sinner missing due to suspension.
Here is a breakdown of the upcoming festivities in “Tennis Paradise.”
BNP Paribas Open
Where: Palm Springs, California
Surface: Hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: $9,693,540
Top seed: Alexander Zverev
Defending champion: Carlos Alcaraz
Draw analysis: Djokovic and Alcaraz are in the same quarter of the draw, just as they were at the Australian Open. Prior to that potential showdown, Djokovic could meet Nick Kyrgios in the second round–which would be a battle between two players who are question marks at the moment. Djokovic has not won a match since retiring from his Australian Open semifinal against Zverev due to a hamstring injury; Kyrgios is 0-2 this season and has not won a match since October of 2022. Meanwhile, Alcaraz is likely to face Dallas champion Denis Shapovalov in the last 32.
The bottom half of the bracket also features 2022 Indian Wells champ Taylor Fritz and Doha winner Andrey Rublev. Fritz may not be 100 percent because of a lingering abdominal issue, while Rublev has been wildly hot and cold dating back to the start of last year. The semifinal spot in that part of the bracket appears to be up for grabs, with guys like Felix Auger-Aliassime, Ben Shelton, Jack Draper, and Joao Fonseca eager to swipe it. Auger-Aliassime is 16-5 in 2025, while Draper vs. Fonseca would arguably be the marquee matchup of the entire second round.
At the top of the draw, Zverev has a rough road ahead of him despite being the No. 1 seed. The second-ranked German will begin his campaign against either Tallon Griekspoor or Delray Beach winner Miomir Kecmanovic before potentially having to deal with the booming serve of Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in round three and a scorching-hot Tomas Machac in round four. Machac’s recent undefeated stay in Mexico saw him win UTS Guadalajara and the ATP 500 in Acapulco. Even if Zverev manages to navigate those roadblocks, he would possibly collide with Dubai champ Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarters.
Last–and probably least–is the Casper Ruud-Daniil Medvedev section. Neither Ruud nor Medvedev inspires much confidence at the moment (especially not in Indian Wells), so this figures to be a nice opportunity for Tommy Paul, Jiri Lehecka, or even an unseeded floater like Reilly Opelka.
In addition to Griekspoor vs. Kecmanovic, first-round matchups to watch include Fonseca vs. Jake Fearnley, Kei Nishikori vs. Jaume Munar, Nishesh Basavareddy vs. Bu Yunchaokete, Matteo Arnaldi vs. Aleksandar Kovacevick, Jakub Mensik vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Learner Tien vs. Mariano Navone, Benjamin Bonzi vs. Jenson Brooksby, Lorenzo Sonego vs. David Goffin, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Mackenzie McDonald, and Gael Monfils vs. Jan-Lennard Struff.
Hot: Alex de Minaur, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Jack Draper, Ugo Humbert, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Tomas Machac, Sebastian Baez, Tallon Griekspoor, Denis Shapovalov, Matteo Berrettini, Nuno Borges, Learner Tien, Joao Fonseca, Nishesh Basavareddy, Alexandre Muller, Jenson Brooksby, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Cold: Daniil Medvedev, Grigor Dimitrov, Holger Rune, Frances Tiafoe, Arthur Fils, Sebastian Korda, Alejandro Tabilo, Alexei Popyrin, Jordan Thompson, Alexander Bublik, Bu Yunchaokete
Quarterfinal predictions: Tomas Machac over Matteo Berrettini, Tommy Paul over Casper Ruud, Felix Auger-Aliassime over Learner Tien, and Carlos Alcaraz over Alex de Minaur
Semifinals: Paul over Machac and Alcaraz over Auger-Aliassime
Final: Alcaraz over Paul
who ya got?
I could be wrong but can’t see Berrettini or FAA going well here. Wrong conditions for them .
Watch them do well now
medium speed hard court? seems very good for Felix and not bad for Berrettini!
Not sure.They pretty unique conditions in IW.
Thin air, high bouncing court. Berrettini did do well at altitude on clay . Felix, I think of as an indoor player totally different conditions. Ill check their records here
it’s a new court in IW this year. Faster and lower bouncing.
It’s all relatively of course. In general the conditions will still be on the slower side.
I heard there was very little difference, the courts were gritty.
Of course, whatever balls they use could be a big factor.
Draw is out.