Indian Wells final preview and prediction: Norrie vs. Basilashvili

Even before the BNP Paribas Open even started, top players tumbled out of the tournament left and right–Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and defending champion Dominic Thiem, just to name a handful. During the fortnight, the likes of Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, and Andrey Rublev all crashed out prior to the semifinals.

The result was a wide-open draw pretty much from start to finish, and it is Cameron Norrie and Nikoloz Basilashvili who have taken advantage.

Norrie and Basilashvili will be squaring off for the second time in their careers when they clash in an improbable final on Sunday afternoon at the Indian Wells Masters. Their only previous encounter came earlier this year on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam, where Norrie rolled 6-0, 6-3.

Aside from a brief five-tournament slump on North American hard courts this summer, things have only gotten better and better for Norrie since he beat Basilashvili. The 26th-ranked Brit has now reached six finals in 2021, including a title in Los Cabos and a recent runner-up performance in San Diego. So far this fortnight he has defeated Tennys Sandgren, Roberto Bautista Agut, Tommy Paul, Diego Schwartzman, and Grigor Dimitrov.

Basilashvili booked his spot in the championship match by beating Christopher Eubanks, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Karen Khachanov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Taylor Fritz. The world No. 36 is bidding for his third title of the season, having previously triumphed in Doha and Munich.

“He’s an incredibly tough player, especially when he’s this confident,” Norrie assessed. “He hits the ball big off both sides. He moves well. He’s a great athlete. Like I said, when he’s confident he can beat anyone. He’s super dangerous.”

“(He’s a) really interesting player,” Basilashvili said of his upcoming opponent. “He’s playing very good at this tournament. He had previous really good weeks…. But overall he’s very not so nice to play with from the baseline. He’s been playing really, really smart and very good tennis.”

Although the Georgian is playing much better than he was back in March when he lost to Norrie in Rotterdam, this is still a bad matchup for him. The left-hander gets a ton of balls back in play, and he can do that even more effectively in extremely slow conditions. Norrie’s backhand also stays low–outside of Basilashvili’s strike zone, just like against Dimitrov in the semis.

Norrie has dominated his last two matches 6-0, 6-2 and 6-2, 6-4, whereas Basilashvili has not enjoyed a routine match since the second round. Look for the Brit to remain on a roll and capture the biggest title of his life.

Pick: Norrie in 2