Expert picks are back for the Indian Wells men’s singles championship match between Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev on Sunday afternoon. A three-team panel previews the highly-anticipated showdown and makes its predictions.
Ricky Dimon: You can’t get a more mouthwatering matchup that doesn’t involve the Big 3. Alcaraz will be No. 1 in the world if he wins the BNP Paribas Open title on Sunday. Medvedev is a former world No. 1 in the world and still is No. 1 in the world based on the department of current form. The Russian has reeled off back-to-back-to-back titles in Rotterdam, Doha, and Dubai and now stands one win from making it four straight.
There have been plenty of instances throughout this 19-match winning streak in which Medvedev could have and even should have lost. In typical Medvedev fashion, though, he has refused to lose. Should Medvedev lose this one? Probably. Alcaraz is playing at an amazing level now that he is healthy again and the surface also favors him. However, the Spaniard isn’t going to blow Medvedev off the court with ease and in what is sure to be a close match I would favor the 27-year-old in the pressure-packed moments. He has simply forgotten how to lose. And I don’t think he will on Sunday. Medvedev 7-6(4), 5-7, 7-5.
Cheryl Murray: This is the final men’s tennis needed in 2023. It’s a hot-ticket match: the best player of the moment taking on the best player of the next generation for the first time since both of them legitimately earned “best” status. Medvedev won their only other encounter, but it was in 2021 before Alcaraz came into his own in 2022–so there’s a bit of mystery surrounding it.
Based on playing style, the courts in Indian Wells should favor Alcaraz. It gives the world No. 2 plenty of time to chase down would-be winners. And while Medvedev is a chronic complainer even when he’s winning, it should be noted that he has been complaining about the court speed all week. By contrast, Medvedev may have a slight edge in form; he has won three tournaments on the trot. Still, he hasn’t looked nearly as comfortable this week as he did for most of the past month. Look for this one to go the distance, but I’m giving the edge to the Spaniard. Alcaraz 5-7, 6-3, 7-6(5).
Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): Both Medvedev and Alcaraz had tussles against familiar opponents on their way to the final. The Russian outlasted Alexander Zverev in the round of sixteen to take a 7-6 H2H lead in that intriguing series and then fended off an inspired performance by Frances Tiafoe in the semis. Similarly, Alcaraz faced foes in the quarters and semis that have impeded his progress a few times last year. In the quarters he finally got the best of Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets after only winning just one set in the previous seven against the Canadian in three losses. Next up he defeated Italian Jannik Sinner in the semis — where the H2H had stood at two wins apiece. In fact, Mats Wilander said the level of play between Alcaraz and Sinner in last year’s U.S. Open five-set QF was the highest level of tennis he has ever witnessed.
The Spaniard would certainly like to return to world No. 1 with a victory in this Indian Wells title match. However, he must first deny Medvedev his 20th consecutive win in order to get there. The battles against both Zverev and Tiafoe (and the crowd) provided the perfect ingredients for Medvedev with what he will need to defeat Alcaraz–namely high-level match play in the days leading up to this final. Medvedev wins his fifth different Masters 1000 against an incredibly determined Alcaraz. Medvedev 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.
who ya got?
Great comments from all 3 of you….but I’ll take Carltos in 2.
Don’t prophesy or engage in idolatry, and you won’t receive that response.
Tennis players are tennis players, not demi gods.
What is happened this week Pete has been remarkably accurate in his recent predictions, including Berrettini’s stunning lost to Shevchenko in Phoenix. Whatever Pete says, I will go with that.
Welp…this was not the battle I was expecting it to be.