What is already an amazing matchup and figures to be tennis’ best rivalry of the next decade will add another chapter when Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner collide in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open on Saturday afternoon.
The head-to-head series is all tied up at 4-4, with Sinner leading 4-3 on the main tour (Alcaraz won a 2019 Challenger contest on the red clay of Alicante). They have faced each other once in Indian Wells, also in the semifinals just last season–when Alcaraz prevailed 7-6(4), 6-3. Sinner, however, has since turned the tide. The third-ranked Italian won 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2 at the 2023 Miami Open and 7-6(4), 6-1 this past fall in Shanghai.
Their most recent result is part of an absolutely unbelievable stretch of tennis for Sinner. He is 29-1 in his last 30 matches and has won 19 in row, a hot streak that has carried him to titles at the Australian Open and in Rotterdam plus an Italian Davis Cup triumph. The 22-year-old has advanced so far in Indian Wells with straight-set defeats of Thanasi Kokkinakis, Jan-Lennard Struff, Ben Shelton, and Jiri Lehecka.
Although Alcaraz arrived in the desert with no such momentum, his title defense has gone better than probably anyone could have expected. The second-ranked Spaniard dropped his opening set of the fortnight to Arnaldi, but that woke him up and sent him off to the races. Alcaraz beat Arnaldi 6-7(5), 6-0, 6-1, Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-2, 6-3, Fabian Marozan 6-3, 6-3, and Alexander Zverev 6-3, 6-1.
Both of these guys are the essence of all-court players, but the Indian Wells conditions are perhaps even better for Sinner. They are fast enough for him to hit through any opponent but slow enough to give him enough time for necessary groundstroke preparation. There is arguably more pressure on Alcaraz, too. He has always been the heir apparent to the Big 3, but Sinner is suddenly giving his friendly rival a run for his money in that department–if not even surpassing him.
Until Sinner actually loses another match, it’s tough to pick against him.
Pick: Sinner in 3
WHO YA GOT?
Thank you for your preview Ricky. I actually believe Alcaraz will win this one. The windy conditions are more favourable for him, in fact Sinner has stated that Nadal and Alcaraz are two of the best players in windy conditions. I get the feeling that he is fresh and ready. The winning streak ends here for Sinner.
You need to predict he’s going to lose before he loses, not after. He could go on another 20-match win streak after a loss.
The same could be said for winning a match a la Paire or even Murray this year. Andy finally broke his duck in IW but that wasn’t hard to predict as Goffin in a similar situation
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another vote for Alcaraz, can’t see him losing 3 in a row to Sinner.
I’m also in the Alcaraz Camp this time around….he’s got a different look in his eye….in 2.