Hong Kong QF previews and predictions: Rublev vs. Fils, Tiafoe vs. Shang

Andrey Rublev has a blockbuster quarterfinal matchup on his hands with Arthur Fils on the other side of the net. Friday’s schedule also includes a showdown between Frances Tiafoe and marathon man Jerry Shang.

(1) Andrey Rublev vs. (8) Arthur Fils

Rublev and Fils will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they clash in the Bank of China Open quarterfinals on Friday. This has all the makings of a great matchup, as both guys are coming off stellar 2023 campaigns. Rublev made a return trip to the Nitto ATP Finals and captured his first Masters 1000 title on the red clay of Monte-Carlo. Fils earned Newcomer of the Year honors and finished runner-up at the NextGen ATP Finals.

Fils has already picked up two hard-fought wins in Hong Kong, beating Borna Gojo 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 and Marc-Andrea Huesler 7-5, 7-5. Things only get much tougher against Rublev, who is the No. 1 seed and without question the title favorite, especially now that second seed and fellow Russian Karen Khachanov is out (lost to Emil Ruusuvuori in round two). Rublev followed up an opening bye with a 6-4, 7-6(8) defeat of Liam Broady on Thursday. This will likely be a tough test for the world No. 5, but look for him to come through in two competitive sets.

Pick: Rublev in 2

(3) Frances Tiafoe vs. (WC) Jerry Shang

Shang is still in the very early stages of his professional career, but he will already be facing Tiafoe for the third time on Friday. Tiafoe dominated both of their previous encounters last season; 6-4, 6-4, 6-1 at the Australian Open and 6-2, 6-3 in Washington, D.C. However, a month away from his 19th birthday Shang may be ready to make moves on the ATP Tour. The world No. 183 is through to the Hong Kong quarterfinals after surviving a pair of thrillers against Laslo Djere and Botic van de Zandschulp–both in third-set tiebreakers.

Things only get tougher in the form of Tiafoe, who is ranked 16th and seeded third. The 25-year-old struggled a bit down the stretch last season, but he has a new coaching team around him this year and that may help turn things back around in a positive direction. Tiafoe is certainly off to a strong start in 2024, as he defeated Miomir Kecmanovic 6-3, 7-6(4) in his Hong Kong opener. This will probably be another case of Tiafoe being too strong for Shang, but expect the underdog to be much more competitive than he was in Melbourne and Washington, D.C.

Pick: Tiafoe in 3