It’s the week before the French Open, but it’s far from a week off. Two ATP tournaments are on the schedule–a 500-pointer in Hamburg and a 250 in Geneva. Novak Djokovic made a late entrance into the Geneva field and is joined by a fellow top-10 player in Taylor Fritz along with Tomas Machac, Karen Khachanov, and Hubert Hurkacz. In Hamburg, Alexander Zverev leads the way.
With the action starting on Sunday, it’s time to break down the draws and make predictions.
Hamburg Open
Where: Hamburg, Germany
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 2,158,560 Euros
Points: 500
Top seed: Alexander Zverev
2024 champion: Arthur Fils (not playing)
Draw analysis: Zverev has reached the Hamburg final in back-to-back seasons and will look to reclaim his title after losing a contentious thriller against Arthur Fils last summer. This tournament used to be part of the post-Wimbledon swing, but now it’s right before Roland Garros. With a Grand Slam on the immediate horizon, the motivation level for Zverev and other top players is certainly a question mark. Will Zverev try to put on a show in front of the home crowd and start working his way back to the No. 2 ranking that he will concede to Carlos Alcaraz on Monday, or will he simply grab an appearance fee and then rest up for Paris? Whatever the case, the top-seeded German could face Alexandre Muller in round two, Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals, and Andrey Rublev in the semis.
The bottom half of the bracket features Frances Tiafoe, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Sebastian Baez, and Gael Monfils. Without question the best matchup of the entire first round pits Davidovich Fokina against Monfils, and whoever advances could meet Flavio Cobolli in the round of 16 and Tiafoe in the quarters–not an easy section. Cerundolo also appears to have a rough road. The Argentine opens against Pedro Martinez before potentially running into Jiri Lehecka (second round) and either Baez, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, or Francisco Comesana (quarterfinals).
Hot: Francisco Cerundolo, Brandon Nakashima, Francisco Comesana, Marcos Giron, Damir Dzumhur
Cold: Andrey Rublev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Jan-Lennard Struff, Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Quarterfinal predictions: Alexander Zverev over Daniel Altmaier, Andrey Rublev over Luciano Darderi, Francisco Comesana over Francisco Cerundolo, and Flavio Cobolli over Marcos Giron
Semifinals: Rublev over Zverev and Cobolli over Comesana
Final: Rublev over Cobolli
Gonet Geneva Open
Where: Geneva, Switzerland
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 596,035 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Taylor Fritz
2024 champion: Casper Ruud (not playing)
Draw analysis: Djokovic’s 2025 campaign began with a retirement in the Australian Open semifinals and since then has only gotten worse. The 37-year-old Serb is 5-6 in his last 11 matches and 0-2 so far on the clay-court swing. Having skipped Rome, Djokovic is playing for the first time since losing his Madrid opener against Matteo Arnaldi. His first match in Geneva won’t be easy, either, with Zizou Bergs or Marton Fucsovics on the other side of the net. Arnaldi is a possible quarterfinal foe for Djokovic, while Machac–the 2024 runner-up–also finds himself in the bottom half of the draw.
The path through the bracket is also a difficult one for Fritz, who will likely get his week started against an in-form Jaume Munar. Their section also includes Hurkacz, Miomir Kecmanovic, and Arthur Cazaux. Among Fritz’s potential semifinal opponents are Khachanov, Alex Michelsen, Nuno Borges, Learner Tien, and Kei Nishikori. Tien vs. Nishikori is an intriguing first-round matchup.
Hot: Fabian Marozsan, Jaume Munar, Jake Fearnley
Cold: Novak Djokovic, Arthur Rinderknech, Nicolas Jarry
Quarterfinal predictions: Jaume Munar over Miomir Kecmanovic, Nuno Borges over Karen Khachanov, Alexei Popyrin over Tomas Machac, and Fabian Marozsan over Novak Djokovic
Semifinals: Munar over Borges and Marozsan over Popyrin
Final: Munar over Marozsan
who ya got?
Those picks are like picked from a hat. Which it could well be at this stage before the RG . Only last week you agreed that Rublev was not to be backed.
Fritz should have the game for the altitude clay, but I dont trust him now, last year he lost early.
Geneva: Khachanov over Machac
Hamburg: Zverev over F Cerundolo
The 4 players Ive most faith in .
week before a Grand Slam is always a complete crapshoot
I would avoid the favorites at all costs
I’ll change my Hamburg picks then.Cant see Zverev or Dolo wanting to hang around till the weekend .They’ve played enough
Phew, glad I went with gut
Geneva: Ouch, Hamburg: Decent chance of Rublev and Cobolli
need Pop in Geneva!
It’s a crapshoot. You got that right
Ofner very underrated player
Arnaldi in 3
Nice win by Djokovic. Arnaldo should’ve done better there.
Calling it now – Rublev to win Hamburg, Norrie to win Geneva.
My logic – Rublev 6-1 H2H vs FAA, 3 within 2024 to current. Since 2022, Rublev has 4 ATP clay titles, more than he has hard or indoors. FAA has none on clay. If Rublev then faces Etcheverry who I think will beat Cobolli. Rublev leads H2H 1-0, Etch never won an ATP title and I feel will be under pressure. So IMO Rublev wins Hamburg.
Norrie may sound a crazy choice, but Djokovic wearing a knee brace pre-Geneva, complaining about his knee vs Arnaldi, withdrew from French open last year due to a knee injury…I think Djokovic either withdraws or if he plays, he plays cautiously as to not mess up French Open performance (considering if Djoko plays final here it’s a Saturday, first match for him at French is Sunday).
If Norrie gets past Djokovic, it’s either Ofner or Hubert. Both looking good. Norrie has more ATP clay titles than either and has beaten better opponents to get them (Alcaraz, Baez, Cerundolo, Rune). Actually his last 2 titles were clay. Hurk won estoril last year but beat Martinez, Garin, Ruiz, Choinski..
Djokovic first match at FO will be Monday or Tuesday
Ah my bad, Google has it for Sunday but I guess just there because it’s not decided yet. That makes more sense for him to want to go for 100th title. I actually see a potential upset of Moutet taking Djoko out in French. Depends how Moutet comes in mentally but it’ll be a rare occasion the crowd doesn’t all hate him.
Rublev vs. Cobolli……..