Halle R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Brown, Federer vs. Sousa

Fed 3Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will kick off their Halle campaigns on Thursday. They are set for respective openers against Dustin Brown and Joao Sousa.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (WC) Dustin Brown

Nadal will be right back in action four days after winning his ninth French Open title when he takes the court on Thursday at the Gerry Weber Open. The top-ranked Spaniard generally struggles–understandably so–making the extremely quick transition from clay to grass without a week in between. He has a single match victory in two previous Halle appearances, having most recently lost to Philipp Kohlschreiber in the 2012 quarterfinals. Similarly, Nadal has made it past the Queen’s Club quarterfinals only once in five forays to that event (he won the title in 2008).

Up first for Nadal this week is Brown, whom the No. 1 seed has never faced. Brown did almost nothing on clay aside from a Houston upset of John Isner en route to the quarters, but his attacking style is always going to work better on grass. The 83rd-ranked German successfully qualified for Wimbledon each of the past two seasons and he reached the third round in 2013. This should be competitive in part because of Brown’s grass-court prowess, but mainly because of the fact that there is no way Nadal will be 100 percent physically or mentally. Still, the favorite should have enough left in the tank to get through at least one match this week.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing more than 8 games

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Joao Sousa vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer and Sousa will also be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers on Thursday. The 32-year-old Swiss is coming off a French Open quarterfinal loss to Ernests Gulbis, but he will be well-rested and obviously motivated to succeed at what is basically a home tournament for him. Federer is 43-5 lifetime in Halle with six titles and he has made it to the final in eight consecutive appearances.

Sousa broke onto the scene last season and he has a decent 10 ATP-level match victories this year, but he also has 18 losses. Although the world No. 47 is a solid all-court player, he would obviously much rather contest this one on clay as opposed to grass. He opened his week on Monday with an impressive 6-4, 6-2 beatdown of Jan-Lennard Struff. Sousa will make Federer work, but this should be one-way traffic from start to finish.

Pick: Federer in 2 losing 5-7 games

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22 Comments on Halle R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Brown, Federer vs. Sousa

  1. Well…Roger advances to the SF with another Walk Over as Lu withdraws. How Many Times!?!?!? I don’t know of any other player who benefits from W/Os as much as Roger. Happy to see Feli won in Queens.

  2. RT @SI_BTBaseline: “It will be Kei Nishikori vs. Roger Federer in the Halle semifinals on Saturday. Nishikori d. Johnson 61 76. #atp”

    Kei to beat Fed……………

  3. This is the kind of loss of Rafa that does not affect me at all (no nightmare) 🙂 because it’s undertandable (for Rafa) to get beaten at the next tournament he played right after a gruelling RG finals.

    Strange but when I learned Rafa got defeated by DB, I hurriedly check Tennis forums and guess what, a lot of swarming fedfans come to full life haha. I enjoyed reading all their posts really. Also a Novak’s fan in particular, noleisthebest is really a madnolefan hahaha.

    I am so sedate as Rafa successfully buried all the intruders underneath the dust :-). Wimbledon is a bonus and I am truly hopeful for him to get another bite on that gold plated trophy one more time.

  4. but, it’s sad that Wimby has become a bonus for Rafa when it used to be one of the possibles …wish he makes it to the 2nd week this year at the possible expense of what’s to come… tennis has to have the most gruelling calendar of all sports..

    • Shireling ( at 3:36 pm),

      Wimby officials use their formula since 2002!

      From the Internet:
      ¤¤ In 2002 the ATP and Wimbledon made an agreement to enable the Wimbledon seeding committee to alter the usual seeding procedure to permit a grass court seeding system to reflect each individual player’s grass court achievements.¤¤

      ¤¤ The Wimbledon formula.
      The Gentlemen’s singles seeds is arranged on a surface-based system to reflect more accurately the individual player’s grass court achievement as per the following formula, which applies to the top 32 players, according to ATP Ranking on 16 June 2014:
      ¤ take ATP ranking points at 16 June 2014,
      ¤ add 100% points earned for all grass court tournaments in the past 12 months (16.06.2013 – 15.06.2014),
      ¤ add 75% points earned for best grass court tournament in the 12 months before that (12.06.2012 – 15.06.2013). ¤¤

  5. Thx for the facts Augusta, I knew Wimby is quite pernickety about their seeds but I guess it makes sense, unlike RG’s whims

  6. well, my dear Spanish football (soccer) team did crap in the World Cup.. I hope Rafito doesn’t follow suit in Wimby

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