A pair of intriguing Roland Garros quarterfinal clashes is on Tuesday’s schedule. Roger Federer is facing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and David Ferrer is set for an all-Spanish showdown against Tommy Robredo. A two-team panel presents differing views on the action.
(6) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (2) Roger Federer
Chris Skelton: Unlike many of his compatriots, Tsonga typically feeds on the passion of his home fans and shines on French soil. He has won the title and reached the final at his nation’s most prominent non-major–the Paris Indoors–and earlier this year he reached the semifinals on clay at the quasi-French event in Monte-Carlo. Notably, both of his previous victories over Federer at Masters 1000 tournaments came in another quasi-French environment at the Rogers Cup in Montreal. Having attended one of those matches, I can attest to the vociferous support that Tsonga received from the French Canadians, which propelled a remarkable comeback.
Three five-setters encourage me to believe that Tsonga has a significant chance at the upset. The first dates from Wimbledon two years ago, when he rallied from losing the first two sets to stun Federer in five. That match proved that Tsonga’s seismic serving and explosive shot-making can threaten the GOAT at a major, and at one of the tournaments where he has gained the most success in his career. If you can take out Federer at Wimbledon, you can take him out anywhere.
Granted, Tsonga’s game fits clay less easily than grass, but here is where another five-setter plays a role in my thinking. Holding four match points against Novak Djokovic in Paris last year, Tsonga fell short of the semifinals by the narrowest of margins. Buoyed by his home-court advantage, he sustained his inspired aggression against one of the ATP’s best defenders on the sport’s slowest surface. Federer returns and defends much less smoothly than Djokovic. While Federer is coming off a five-set escape against Gilles Simon, Tsonga has not lost a set in the tournament. Tsonga in 4.
Ricky Dimon: The French Open fans–and many others–have plenty of reason to believe, with Tsonga in rare form and fresh off a 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 destruction of Viktor Troicki. Tsonga has defeated Federer three times in his career and two of their last three Grand Slam encounters went to five sets (including in this year’s Australian Open quarters). Not all bodes well, however, for the world No. 8. Two of those five-setters (including the most recent one Down Under) went the way of Federer, who has nine career wins over Tsonga. The third-ranked Swiss captured the French Open title in 2009 whereas his Tuesday opponent has never advanced past the quarterfinals. At 31 years old, Federer proved he has plenty left in the tank by coming back from two sets to one down against Simon.
Don’t overreact to the Swiss’ relative struggle against Simon. He positively dominated his first three matches of this fortnight and a human backboard like Simon is not a favorable matchup for Federer at this point in the legend’s career. Federer won’t have to play so many extended rallies against a power player like Tsonga. While he does have a few bigtime wins here and there, the eighth-ranked Frenchman has generally fared poorly against the current Top 4 players in the world. In fact, he is at least five matches under .500 against all four; 3-9 against Federer, 5-10 against Djokovic, 3-8 against Rafael Nadal, and 1-7 against Andy Murray. Federer in 5.
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(32) Tommy Robredo vs. (4) David Ferrer
Chris: One of the tournament’s most compelling stories, Robredo has shown admirable courage and tenacity in erasing one two-set deficit after another at a record-breaking rate. That said, we should not lose sight of perspective. Two of his comebacks came against lower-ranked, unseeded opponents (Igor Sijsling and Gael Monfils), and the third came against a fellow Spaniard notorious for surrendering huge leads (Nicolas Almagro).
The previous beneficiary of an Almagro meltdown at a major, Ferrer has needed no such assistance from his opponents at this event. He has swept all four of his matches in straight sets, sharpening his form with each passing round through a clinical demolition of Kevin Anderson on Sunday. As the fourth seed, Ferrer can sniff a second straight semifinal at Roland Garros, so no letdown looms against a compatriot whom he has dominated. Robredo has not defeated his higher-ranked compatriot since 2008–near his tenure in the Top 10–and he lacks the weapons to easily hit through Ferrer from the baseline.
More importantly, Robredo cannot have much fuel left in his tank, physically or emotionally. Those who aspire to defeat Ferrer must prepare for a grueling ordeal of physicality, which becomes even more extreme in the best-of-five format. Robredo must start this match well to have a chance, and starting well is the one thing that he has not done this tournament. If he falls behind early again, the inexorable Ferrer will show no forgiveness. Ferrer in 3.
Ricky: This French Open has been a tale of two Tommys: Haas and Robredo. Haas is already through to the quarterfinals, along the way saving a match point (after squandering 12) in a five-set, third-round thriller against John Isner. Two days later, the German came back out and humiliated Mikhail Youzhny 6-1, 6-3, 6-3. Not unlike the 35-year-old Tommy, the 31-year-old Tommy is not as old in tennis years as age would suggest. Both (granted, Haas to a greater extent) have lost more than their fair share of time due to physical problems. They have always been the of the fittest guys in the business, and this fortnight–heck, simply their appearance in the 128-man field–is proving it once more. Robredo has survived three straight five-setters and there is no reason to believe that he is not good for one more.
The more pressing issue is the fellow Spaniard on the other side of the net. Ferrer is 35-9 this season, which includes a runner-up finish in Miami. Still, he has not been as impressive as he was in 2012. Ferrer lost his Barcelona opener to Dmitry Tursunov and he got blown out by Stanislas Wawrinka in the Oeiras final before getting terrible draws in Madrid and Rome (Rafael Nadal in the quarters of both). The world No. 5 has been dominant through four rounds, but only one of his opponents (Albert Montanes) was a traditional clay-courter like Robredo. All of that being said, Robredo getting all the way over this hump and into the last four is too much to ask given the respective paths through the draw of the two Spaniards up to this point. The clock will strike midnight on this memorable Cinderella story, but it won’t be before one more heroic effort. Ferrer in 5.
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Loved the twin views on these 2 upcoming matches…Thx. Fed looked great in his last 2 sets vs Simon, so I like Fed in 4 (maybe even 3!); and I agree about Ferrer….Tommy R just can’t have too much left in the tank….ferrer in 3.