Three of the four finalists this week are unseeded, which is not unusual for 250-point events during the fall swing. Alex de Minaur is facing Adrian Mannarino on Sunday in Chengdu, while the Zhuhai title match pits Pablo Carreno Busta against Alexander Bublik.
Zhuhai Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs. (7) Alex de Minaur
De Minaur survived two tough ones against Andy Murray and Borna Coric earlier this week, but he has been by far the best player in Zhuhai and can punctuate his run in appropriate fashion on Sunday. One more win would result in the 20-year-old Australian’s third ATP title of his career and third of the season. De Minaur sandwiched his defeats of Murray and Coric by crushing John Millman 6-1, 6-3 in round one and Roberto Bautista Agut 6-2, 6-2 on Saturday.
Up next for the world No. 31 is a first-ever meeting with Mannarino. The 31-year-old Frenchman also captured the first title of his career in 2019, triumphing on the grass courts of ‘s-Hertogenbosch. He is sporting a winning record for the season (22-21) thanks to Zhuhai victories over Ze Zhang, top-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas (via retirement), Damir Dzumhur, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Mannarino is 1-6 lifetime in ATP finals and another such loss is likely forthcoming against a scorching-hot opponent.
Pick: De Minaur in 2
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Chengdu Open: Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Alexander Bublik
Carreno Busta and Bublik will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers on Sunday in Chengdu. Their only previous encounter did not disappoint, as Carreno Busta prevailed 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(1) on the indoor hard courts of Moscow in 2016. Bublik’s style of play is conducive to tiebreakers and generally competitive matches like that one, because his serve is huge but the rest of his game can be erratic. The 71st-ranked Kazakh has gone deep into third sets twice this week, outlasting Taylor Fritz and Grigor Dimitrov in dramatic fashion while making more routine work of Jordan Thompson and lucky loser Lloyd Harris.
Carreno Busta has also been in stellar form this summer; in fact, he has won multiple matches at five consecutive tournaments. The 63rd-ranked Spaniard is through to his seventh career final (3-3 record) following defeats of Radu Albot, Benoit Paire, Christian Garin, and Denis Shapovalov. Bublik, meanwhile, is set for his second-ever title match after reaching the same stage in Newport two months ago. Based on current form and experience, an overall edge definitely goes to Carreno Busta.
Pick: Carreno Busta in 2
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