The first tournaments on the spring clay-court swing come to a close on Sunday. In Houston, top seed Ben Shelton faces No. 3 Frances Tiafoe; in Marrakech, Roberto Carballes Baena defends his title against Matteo Berrettini.
U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship: (1) Ben Shelton vs. (3) Frances Tiafoe
Shelton and Tiafoe will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers when they clash in the Houston final on Sunday afternoon. Their only previous encounter came in the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open last summer, when Shelton pulled off a 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(7), 6-2 upset.
Shelton is the favorite this time around, having climbed to No. 16 in the world. The 22-year-old has been mostly mediocre so far in 2024, but he appears to be a quick learner on clay with victories this week over Zizou Bergs, Brandon Nakashima, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Tiafoe has gone in the other direction since losing to Shelton in New York, with a 3-7 record in his last 10 matches of the 2023 campaign and a 7-7 record this year heading into Houston. The world No. 21 may be turning things around, as he booked a spot in his first final since Stuttgart last June by beating James Duckworth, Jordan Thompson, and Luciano Darderi. Still, Tiafoe has not defeated anyone ranked better than No. 40 so far in 2024 and Shelton’s game–even on clay–is looking too big and all around too good for his compatriot.
Pick: Shelton in 3
Grand Prix Hassan II: Roberto Carballes Baena vs. (PR) Matteo Berrettini
Carballes Baena is one win away from successfully defending his 2023 Marrakech title. The 31-year-old Spaniard has played in only two ATP finals throughout his entire career but has won both of them, including at this same tournament last spring (defeated Alexandre Muller in three sets). Carballes Baena is now an unbelievable 15-3 lifetime in the Marrakech main draw following victories this week over Matteo Gigante, Dan Evans, Nicolas Moreno de Alboran, and Pavel Kotov.
Up next for the world No. 64 is a fourth meeting with Berrettini, who leads the head-to-head series 2-1. They split a pair of indoor hard-court encounters before the Italian prevailed on the outdoor hard courts of Naples in 2022. Returning from a 2023 wrist injury, Berrettini had not won an ATP-level match in 2024 prior to this week but had enjoyed some Challenger success with a runner-up performance in Phoenix. The world No. 135 has really picked up momentum in Marrakech by defeating Alexander Shevchenko, Jaume Munar, Lorenzo Sonego, and Mariano Navone. Although Berrettini is rounding back into form, he remains well off his best level and clay is the last surface on which he wants to face Carballes Baena.
Pick: Carballes Baena in 3
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Ben & Berrettini, each in 3