It’s hard to keep track of the tennis schedule these days, but ATP finals are–somewhat inexplicably–being contested on a Tuesday in Chengdu and Hangzhou. Alexander Bublik is bidding for his fourth title of the season.
Chengdu Open: (1) Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alejandro Tabilo
Musetti and Tabilo will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers when they battle for the Chengdu title on Tuesday night. This event continues an outstanding run of form for Musetti, who–when healthy–has arguably been one of the five best players on tour dating back to last summer. The ninth-ranked Italian is coming off a quarterfinal showing at the U.S. Open and he now finds himself in the Chengdu final thanks to victories Dino Prizmic, Nikoloz Basilashvili, and Alexander Shevchenko.
The 2024 Chengdu runner-up is now 8-2 lifetime at this tournament. This time around in the final, Musetti does not have to go up against an opponent from the host nation (he lost to Jerry Shang 12 months ago). Tabilo can be dangerous, but his performance this week has come from pretty much out of nowhere. The injury-plagued Chileans is down at No. 112 in the rankings and he was a horrendous 5-13 for the year before suddenly beating Jordan Thompson, Luciano Darderi, Christopher O’Connell, and Brandon Nakashima. Musetti is way too good of a player to have only two ATP titles, plus he will be eager to make amends for last season’s shortcoming in the championship match.
Pick: Musetti in 2
Hangzhou Open: (Q) Valentin Royer vs. (3) Alexander Bublik
Bublik is one win away from his fourth title of the season–and if he can get the job done in Hangzhou and produce at least one more big result in 2025, he could be heading straight for the Nitto ATP Finals. That’s just how good Bublik has been dating back to the French Open, a stretch that includes triumphs in Halle, Gstaad, and Kitzbuhel. The 19th-ranked Kazakh is back in another final following victories over Aleksandar Vukic, Dalibor Svrcina, and Yibing Wu.
On paper, Tuesday’s Hangzhou final is a massive mismatch. Royer is a 24-year-old Frenchman ranked No. 88 in the world. Prior to this tournament, he had been a mere 3-5 lifetime in his entire career on the main tour. Royer has more than doubled that number since qualifying for the main draw, picking up wins over Aleksandar Kovacevic, Andrey Rublev, Learner Tien, and Corentin Moutet. The qualifier was two points away from defeat in the opening round; now he finds himself in his first ATP final. Unfortunately for Royer, he is facing an opponent who is hotter than everyone on tour other than Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and maybe Musetti and Taylor Fritz.
Pick: Bublik in 2
WWW?
Picking favourites all the time is quite a brainless approach. No need to copy bookmakers.