Finals previews and predictions: Alcaraz vs. Lehecka, Medvedev vs. Bublik

The biggest titles of the pre-Wimbledon grass swing will be handed out on Sunday at the ATP 500 events at Queen’s Club and in Halle. It’s Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jiri Lehecka and Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Bublik.

HSBC Championships: (1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jiri Lehecka

The British fans were hoping to watch a battle between the top two seeds in Alcaraz and their own Jack Draper. Instead, Alcaraz will face an unseeded opponent in Lehecka in Sunday’s final at Queen’s Club. Of course, it’s not like Lehecka’s appearance in the title match came from completely out of nowhere. The 23-year-old has been ranked as high as No. 22 in the world and he will be 60 points away from breaking into the top 20 for the first time if he prevails on Sunday. Lehecka has advanced this week with victories over Draper, Alex de Minaur, Gabriel Diallo, and Jake Fearnley. The Czech won his first three matches in straight sets before outlasting Draper 6-4, 4-6, 7-5 in the semis.

Alcaraz is bidding for his second Queen’s Club title in his third appearance, and his successful run in 2023 included a win over Lehecka (6-2, 6-3 in round two). The second-ranked Spaniard is also a two-time Wimbledon champion, so early returns on grass point to an absolutely unbelievable career on this surface–as if it isn’t already by mere mortals’ standards! Alcaraz is once again up to his usual tricks on the Queen’s Club lawns with defeats of Adam Walton, Jaume Munar (three sets), Arthur Rinderknech, and Roberto Bautista Agut. The reigning French Open champ hasn’t been lights out this week, but the competition level may be a contributing factor. With a trophy at stake and a dangerous opponent on the other side of the net, Alcaraz can be expected to raise his level.

Pick: Alcaraz in 2

Terra Wortmann Open: Alexander Bublik vs. (3) Daniil Medvedev

Matches don’t get much harder to handicap than a showdown between two of the most mercurial players on tour. On one hand, Bublik has been absolutely on fire dating back to the start of Roland Garros and Medvedev has not won a title since the 2023 Rome Masters. On the other hand, Medvedev is ranked 34 spots ahead of his opponent and is sweeping the head-to-head series 7-0 (6-0 on the main tour).

A quarterfinalist at the French Open, Bublik has advanced in Halle by taking out Alexandre Muller, Jannik Sinner, Tomas Machac, and Karen Khachanov. Medvedev has dropped just one set while ousting Daniel Altmaier, Quentin Halys, Alex Michelsen, and Alexander Zverev. The first set of this match will likely be critical. If Medvedev loses it, the doubts surrounding his ongoing title drought will surely enter his mind; if Bublik loses it, it’s hard to see him being physically or mentally prepared to battle through another three-setter. All things considered, Medvedev’s head-to-head dominance (15-1 in total sets) is too difficult to look past.

Pick: Medvedev in 2