Finals previews and predictions: Federer vs. Coric, Cilic vs. Djokovic

June 23, 2018 Ricky Match previews 114

Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic will be playing for grass-court titles on Sunday. Federer is facing Borna Coric in Halle, while Djokovic has a Queen’s Club showdown with Marin Cilic on his hands.

Gerry Weber Open: (1) Roger Federer vs. Borna Coric

Federer and Coric will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when they battle for the Halle title on Sunday. Both of their previous encounters have gone Federer’s way; 6-2, 6-1 three years ago in Dubai and 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 earlier this season in Indian Wells. The latter event was a struggle for Federer at various points and it ended with a loss in the final (to Juan Martin Del Potro). Now Coric must hope for a similar story in Halle, where the 36-year-old Swiss has been far from his best en route to the championship match. Federer has advanced by beating Aljaz Bedene 6-3, 6-4, Benoit Paire 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(7), Matthew Ebden 7-6(2), 7-5, and Denis Kudla 7-6(1), 7-5.

Coric booked his spot in the final with straight-set victories over Alexander Zverev, Nikoloz Basilashvili, and Andreas Seppi before getting a retirement from Roberto Bautista Agut on Saturday. This has come just about out of nowhere for the 34th-ranked Croat, who cooled off on clay following respective semifinal/quarterfinal showings in Indian Wells/Miami and had been a dreadful 2-9 lifetime on grass (qualifying matches included) prior to this week. Federer, on the other hand, is 63-3 for his Halle career (56-3 in his last 59 matches) and has won it nine times to go along with his eight Wimbledon titles and plenty of other grass-court accolades. This is an obvious mismatch, although based on their form this week Coric will probably be able to test Federer in two competitive sets.

Pick: Federer in 2 losing 8-10 games

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Fever-Tree Championships: (1) Marin Cilic vs. (WC) Novak Djokovic

Cilic and Djokovic will be squaring off for the 16th time in their careers when they meet again in the Queen’s Club final on Sunday. One of the most lopsided head-to-head matchups in tennis has Djokovic leading the series 14-1, including 2-0 on grass (6-1, 3-6, 6-7(4), 6-2, 6-2 at Wimbledon in 2014 and 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 at Wimbledon one season later). But there is at least some good news for Cilic, in that he once trailed Djokovic 14-0 before finally upsetting the Serb in the most recent encounter at the 2016 Paris Masters via a 6-4, 7-6(2) decision.

Moreover, this is currently not the same Djokovic–even though the former world No. 1’s comeback is clearly picking up steam. Down at No. 22 in the world due to an elbow injury that has plagued his 2017 and 2018 campaigns, Djokovic recovered from disastrous showings in Indian Wells and Miami to reach the Rome semifinals and the French Open quarters. So far this week has taken out John Millman, Grigor Dimitrov, Adrian Mannarino, and Jeremy Chardy all in straight sets. The competition level now ratchets up in the form of Cilic, who finished runner-up to Federer at Wimbledon last summer. Always a force on the green stuff, the sixth-ranked Croat has advanced at Queen’s Club with victories over Fernando Verdasco, Gilles Muller, Sam Querrey, and Nick Kyrgios, surrendering just one set to Muller along the way. Cilic has navigated a rough draw in impressive fashion and should be battle-tested enough to handle an opponent who had faced only two top-10 players since the 2017 French Open and owned no top-10 wins since Rome last spring until beating Dimitrov earlier this week.

Pick: Cilic in 3

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63 Comments on Finals previews and predictions: Federer vs. Coric, Cilic vs. Djokovic

  1. I think Novak got tight in that TB. When you have been in a slump and haven’t won anything, then it’s easy to get right if you are on the verge of winning a title.

    Now Novak has to settle down in this third set. He can still do this.

    Reply

    • amy!…Nole talked about how he lack of confidence a while ago…And rightly so after the injury that he had…We Rafans already familiar with this issue…But i think current Nole is wayyyy better than 2,3,4 months ago right?So..imo he’s on his way ‘home’ now despite the loss today…

      Don’t be too upset RC!…He’s back!…be patient to wait for vintage Nole okay?He’s just around the corner!Insyaallah!

      Reply

    • It is in the mind! But Novak has to take the good out of this result. It’s the best he’s done in a long time. Winning would have given him a real boost of confidence and belief, but the truth is that he’s playing much better tennis now. Also, the passion and fire seems to have finally come back for him. Wanting to win is very important. I don’t think that even if he won this title it would have meant he was back. It’s a process. This is part of it.

      If Novak had won he would have moved up to #12. As it is he will still move up in the rankings.

      Reply

      • Commiserations to rc. But take heart. Even Novak realizes that this is a big step forward for him. The quality of his tennis has improved quite a bit. He will still gain confidence from this result. It’s much better than how he sounded after losing at RG. He stayed in the game.

        Reply

    • Thank you! What a great piece of insightful sports journalism. It captures everything I admire about Rafa, because it focusses on his sublime tennis brain which I personally always admired far more than his speed and his biceps.

      Reply

  11. I’m very surprised Nole managed to lose this in the end! He was on the run and I was about to post “Nole is back” but he obviously still needs to play better at crucial points! I guess that’s the price they all pay on the way back to the top! Nole certainly did way better this time and is progressing gradually! I think he still nakes a contender for Wimby title!

    Congrats to two Croats winning the two majior grass Wimby preparation tournaments! After amazing win of the Croat team over Argentina and Messi at the world football cup I start to believe it’s their time to make big noise out there!

    Reply

  12. Personally, I would say that this is actually a great result for BOTH Cilic and Novak. Obviously it’s good for Cilic as he lost that heartbreaker final at Queen’s last year, and has now made up for it.

    But I would argue that, despite the obvious disappointment of losing a close final, Novak can view his run at Queens very positively. Although he’s obviously not back to his top-dollar best, he is certainly MUCH closer than he was just a couple months ago. Given that beating any of the Big 4 at the majors is exponentially harder than in best-of-three, I would say that Novak has put himself into position for being a contender at Wimbledon again. Maybe not an odds-on favorite, but absolutely a contender.

    Although I still see Federer as the slight favorite, there is no question that Wimby is more open than it was last year, due to a combination of the field playing better, and Federer yet another year closer to 40 and potentially not in as good form as he was last year. We obviously won’t know where his actual level will at until his first couple matches at Wimby, but there’s no question that his age is slowly but surely starting to show…

    We also have no idea where Rafa’s level will be at until we see him play a couple matches on grass, but it wasn’t like he played horribly at Wimby last year. He just came up against a bad match-up for him on grass in the 4th round. And he BARELY lost at that.

    Cilic will clearly be gunning for his first Wimby title, and to make up for his pathetic performance in last year’s final. He’s always dangerous on slicker/lower-bouncing courts. As will Kyrgios.

    So while I don’t agree at all with Hawks that this year’s Wimbledon is “wide open”, I do recognize that the gap is certainly narrower than it was last year.

    Reply

  13. amy JUNE 24, 2018 AT 4:32 PM,

    Speaking of politics, I think, Marin Cilic, who is a Croat, is quite happy that he defeated a Serb…

    Wikipedia: “As tensions rose, Croatia declared independence on 25 June 1991; however, the full implementation of declaration only came into effect on 8 October 1991. In the meantime, tensions escalated into overt war when the Yugoslav People’s Army (JNA) and various Serb paramilitary groups attacked Croatia. By the end of 1991, a high-intensity conflict fought along a wide front reduced Croatia to control of only about two-thirds of its territory. The various Serb paramilitary groups then began pursuing a campaign of killing, terror and expulsion against the non-Serb population in the rebel territories, killing thousands of Croat civilians and forcing at least 170,000 from their homes.”
    Read more:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia

    Reply

  14. Amy,

    More details on the nazi that Cilic appeared with here…

    “Perković created controversy by allegedly performing “Jasenovac i Gradiška Stara”, a song that openly glorifies the Ustaše regime and its crimes against humanity during World War II.[10] The Simon Wiesenthal Centre filed complaints to Croatia’s state television channel regarding its broadcast of a singer accused of expressing nostalgia for the Ustaše, although Perković denied any connection with that time period. The complaints were ignored.[11] Perković denied writing or even performing the song, stating he is “a musician, not a politician”.[12] An organizer for a Thompson tour of New York City in 2007 also defended Perković, claiming the musician did not write the song nor is a copy available on any of his albums.[13]

    Many of his fans are known for their ultranationalism, demonstrated by Ustaše uniforms (including black hats associated with the movement), symbols, and banners.[14] At the beginning of the song “Bojna Čavoglave”, Perković invokes za dom – spremni! (Ready for the homeland!), the slogan/rallying cry of the Nazi-affiliated Ustaše.[15]”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marko_Perkovi%C4%87

    Reply

  15. More evidence that the big 4 era is just about at its end. Both Fed and Nole could and probably should have won today, but their opponents were better in the biggest points. Fed particularly could have won this match in two, with 2 set points in the 1st TB.

    Despite the last 6 slams, it would not be too much of a surprise if the era of the big 4 winning slams is over. Unless Fed was really keeping something in reserve in Halle, and/or can rejuvenate in a week, I wouldn’t call him the wimby favourite at this point.

    Reply

    • Joe, Wimby 2018 may be the first slam in a long, long time where none of the Big Four is a clear favorite, although Fed has clearly the best chances of the Fantastic Four. But I doubt somehow that he will defend his title from last year. Cilic is the favorite for me.
      It was a sensational and somewhat improbable story line that Rafa and Fed split the last six slams between themselves. But I have a hunch that the end of the road is in sight…

      Reply

      • But littlefoot!…I still believe that Rafa can be a threat at USO or AO if he’s healthy…But Fed bcoz of his age & what he shown to us these last 2 weeks[there’s a fragility in him]..ermm..makes him less favourite in my eyes….At Wimby or else..But of coz i could be wrong too…Fed’s a great champion after all…

        Reply

        • In your other thread are you suggesting Mira you feel Rafa gets one more early exit at wimby ? I still want him to do well there one last time..

          Reply

          • Sanju!…Of coz we Rafans ‘want’ him to do well there!…me too!!…U have no idea how hurt my feelings were everytime he exits early for the last 5 years?But…’want’ and fact[logic] r two different things…

            I have 4,5 very logical reasons in my head that i’m sure u already aware of as a Rafans…But,due to my respect & care so much about my fellow Rafans feelings especially Nny,would u mind if we don’t talk about it now?Heading to Wimby,we all needs a positive thinking & energy in hope that Rafa will do his best there & break his cursed luck this year…Okay sanju?

          • Rafa had himself to blame for losing to Muller last year! Had he played better in the first two sets instead of being too tentative, he could have the match. Of course there’s some bad luck in the second set at one particular point that led to him losing the second set. In the fifth set, he refused to adjust his ROS positions when returning Muller’s serve during the extended fifth set.

            He said it himself, that he’s playing well but ran into the hard serving Mulller, he could’ve won the match too imo.

          • Lucky, I think his game was at least slightly affected when he banged the top of his head on the door jamb jumping up and down before walking out on court. That bang was really loud and had to hurt! I’m not joking. It gave me bad feelings before the match.

            https://youtu.be/IRs6mYeycII

          • hawkasaurus AT 11:53 AM.

            This is one of Fed devotees’ favourite story about Rafa that they have been posting somewhere (almost?) daily.

          • Augusta, that surprises me.

            Not like fedfans to make reasons for rafas losses other than his opponent was better than him.

            If anything, I’d expect fedfans to say this is just an excuse and had nothing to do with his loss.

            Any links to that?

          • MA,

            You can say whatever you think about Rafa’s chances! We all know his it’s been in the last few years. I really thought he had a shot to go deep last year, but he ran into a red hot Muller and that was it. It’s okay not to pick Rafa to win here!

            I think the draw will be crucial for Rafa!

          • AT 2:16 PM

            I misunderstood what you meant. Thanks.

            I still think it might have played a factor in the loss. It must have been a pretty hard hit to make that sound. I didn’t think that it was funny at all.

          • Oh really Nny?Even tho it is not very encouraging??Thank u,thank u,thank u Nny!!….YOU’RE AWESOME!!!!

    • Joe Smith says AT 5:47 PM: “More evidence that the big 4 era is just about at its end. Both Fed and Nole could and probably should have won today…”
      ===

      Yes, Fed should retire.

      Reply

  16. I’ve thought Cilic was the biggest threat to Fed at Wimbledon since grass season started, and today’s victory solidified that. What’s surprising for me is that the pick I actually got right today was the guy who was 1-14 against his opponent heading in. But that’s just how good Cilic is on grass I guess.

    Reply

    • Indeed. Unlike last year, a good handful can take down Federer this year on any given day during this fortnight.

      Cilic, Coric (apparently), Kyrgios, Nadal, Djokovic just off the top.

      I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes out before the semis this year.

      As long as Isner is in the Top 10, it’s still a weak era IMO.

      #CanaryInaCoalmine

      Reply

  17. So I’m right predicting the two Croatians would probably win. Congrats to both. Coric looking dangerous out there, after seeing how he pushed Fed to three sets at IW, I think he’s getting back on track to be one of the promising next gen guys.

    Reply

    • Yes a savvy pick from tennis’ head prognosticator on TG.

      Good call. Coric’s loss to Fed in IW after being a break up in the third served him well this time around.

      Reply

  18. I think Djoko at this point in time is better on grass than on clay. I think he lacks match fitness, and the grinding on clay match after match had done him in hence his loss in the QF of the FO.

    At Queen’s, points were shorter and his serve was hardly broken, and he need not grind until the final. I think BO5 on grassis still a challenge if he faces a big server like Cilic; I’m also wondering if Coric meets Djoko at Wimbledon who will win the match, as both plays about the same way. They probably have to grind even on grass and fitness wise, Coric may now have an edge.

    Reply

    • I’m also not convinced that best-of-five will be an advantage for Novak, since it will give his opponents more chances to come back, and Novak has been a very unsuccessful frontrunner during this season. He found ways to lose matches where he started strongly and which he should never have lost. If he manages to fix this, he will regain some of his old strength. But an almost-win over Cilic on grass isn’t too shabby!

      Reply

  19. Ricky can you enlighten how seeds get placed in draw again from 3rd round 32 seeds? I remember you had told but I forgot ..j think it’s not all random and there are groups of 4

    Reply

  20. Federer a bit rusty after the long break eh. Age must be catching up with him.

    Calling it now. He won’t win wimbledon this year.

    Reply

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