The matchup everyone was anticipating when the Indian Wells draw came out has come to fruition. Roger Federer and Rafael have battled their ways into the quarterfinals and they will collide in a Thursday night blockbuster.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 29th time in their careers when they clash in the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open on Thursday night.
Nadal boasts a considerable 18-10 record in the head-to-head series, but Federer has won six of their 11 previous hard-court meetings. They faced each other twice last season before the Spaniard was sidelined, with Nadal prevailing 6-7(5), 6-2, 7-6(5), 6-4 at the Australian Open only to see Federer get revenge via a 6-3, 6-4 win in the Indian Wells semifinals. This is only their second-ever meeting in the desert and this is their first-ever quarterfinal encounter.
It would be unreasonable to expect an instant classic (such as their Wimbledon 2008 final, just to name one), because both players come in with question marks. Nadal, of course, missed seven months due to knee problems before returning in early February. The world No. 5 lost to Horacio Zeballos in the Vina del Mar final, but he triumphed in both Sao Paulo and Acapulco (destroyed David Ferrer 6-0, 6-2). After beating Ryan Harrison and getting a walkover from Leonard Mayer, Nadal overcame Ernests Gulbis 4-6, 6-4, 7-5 in a thriller on Wednesday night.
Federer has not won a title in three events this season and he has not even reached a final. Adding insult to injury, or vice versa, the second-ranked Swiss has been dealing with a minor back injury this fortnight. Federer eased past Denis Istomin and Ivan Dodig, but he needed three sets to survive Stanislas Wawrinka on Wednesday after serving for the match in the second. Federer did not appear to be entirely 100 percent against either Dodig or Wawrinka.
On the plus side for Nadal, he has looked relatively solid in his first two hard-court matches in since last spring. The former world No. 1 stopped Gulbis’ 13-match winning streak even though his knees were giving him some trouble. Federer, however, always has an advantage of Nadal on hard courts–even though the surface is Indian Wells is not as fast as he would like. Furthermore, the 17-time slam champion’s match with Wawrinka was less grueling than Nadal-Gulbis and his back issue is certainly less worrisome than Nadal’s knee problem.
If Federer serves as poorly as he did against Wawrinka, Nadal will be able to play his way into rallies and dictate to his opponent’s backhand–a well-documented tactic throughout the history of this rivalry, and one that Federer has never solved. Still, as long as the No. 2 seed serves halfway decent, almost all signs point to a Federer win.
Pick: Federer 7-5, 6-3
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Fed and rafa in the quarters…hard to believe. I like Fed in 2!