What in the name of Horacio Zeballos is going on out here!?!?!?
Quite a lot, in fact. The tennis world won’t have time to contemplate the surprising turn of events in Sunday’s Vina del Mar final—in which Zeballos stunned Rafael Nadal in three sets—because a jam-packed week is up next on the schedule. Nadal is back in action in Sao Paulo, Roger Federer returns to the court in Rotterdam, and they are joined this week by fellow Top 10 players Juan Martin Del Potro, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Richard Gasquet (all three in Rotterdam). Meanwhile, the American indoor swing gets underway as Milos Raonic goes for a third consecutive title in San Jose.
Brasil Open
Where: Sao Paulo, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Prize money: $455,775
Points: 250
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Nicolas Almagro
Draw analysis: Nadal may have a slightly tougher path in Sao Paulo than the one he faced in Vina del Mar. His opener should be a breeze, but he could face Carlos Berlocq as early as the quarterfinals. Although the top-seeded Spaniard is on another collision course with Jeremy Chardy for the semis, that opponent could turn out to be Thomaz Bellucci. In such a case, rabid fan support for Nadal may at least be somewhat tempered by a Brazilian on the other side of the net.
As for the bottom half of the draw, from which a possible final opponent for Nadal could come, one can only assume that the No. 2 seed won’t flame out as early as it did in Vina del Mar (Juan Monaco lost his opening match). That’s because Nicolas Almagro, after sitting out last week, is back on the court for his favorite time of year–the Golden Swing. Almagro headlines a deep bottom half that also features Zeballos, Monaco, David Nalbandian, Paolo Lorenzi, and Tommy Robredo. Almagro could open with Zeballos while Monaco awaits either Robredo or Simone Bolelli.
First-round upset alert: Santiago Giraldo over (7) Pablo Andujar. This would be an upset according to seed and ranking but nothing else. You have to expect Giraldo to win this, if only because his opponent is in brutal form. Andujar has not won a single match since the first round of last summer’s U.S. Open, mired in a losing streak that has reached 11 following four consecutive losses in 2013. Giraldo is not exactly setting the world on fire, but he advanced one round in Vina del Mar before a respectable three-set loss to Berlocq. There is no reason to think Andujar’s slump will end anytime soon–not even on clay.
Hot: Nicolas Almagro, Jeremy Chardy, Albert Montanes, Horacio Zeballos
Cold: Juan Monaco, Pablo Andujar, Ricardo Mello, Tommy Robredo, David Nalbandian
Semifinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Thomaz Bellucci and Nicolas Almagro over Juan Monaco
Final: Nadal over Almagro
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
Where: Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 1,575,875 Euros
Points: 500
Top seed: Roger Federer
2011 champion: Roger Federer
Draw analysis: It would be fair to say that Rotterdam is top-heavy, because Federer, Del Potro, Tsonga, and Gasquet are by far the best in the draw. However, “top-heavy” in this case does not mean the rest of the field is weak. Among the other seeded players are Gilles Simon and Jerzy Janowicz, while a strong crop of unseeded floaters includes Mikhail Youzhny, Michael Llodra, Nikolay Davydenko, Bernard Tomic, Grigor Dimitrov, Benoit Paire, Marcos Baghdatis, and Gael Monfils.
Of the top four seeds, Tsonga has the friendliest road (an opener against wild card Igor Sijsling and his nearest seed is Simon). Del Potro’s path opens up if he can get through his first match, but that’s a big “if.” The second-seeded Argentine became the latest victim of Monfils’ injury-plagued ranking, because he has to face the Frenchman in the opening round. Federer should cruise through two rounds before possibly running into a dangerous Janowicz followed by a likely semifinal against Tsonga. Other first-round matchups to watch are Llodra vs. Julien Benneteau, Tomic vs. Dimitrov, and Paire vs. Baghdatis.
First-round upset alert: Nikolay Davydenko over (8) Florian Mayer. It can rarely be said of Davydenko–on the downside of his career at 31 years old–that he has an edge in current form in any matchup. But that’s exactly the case for this one against Mayer, who lost his last three matches of 2012 and has fallen in the second round in each of his three tournaments this season (all in straight sets). Davydenko lost his opener last week in Montpellier, but he at least finished runner-up in Doha last month thanks to some outstanding tennis. The veteran Russian is an underdog only based on ranking; he has no business losing to Mayer.
Hot: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Andreas Seppi, Jerzy Janowicz, Grega Zemlja, Bernard Tomic, Benoit Paire, Jarkko Nieminen
Cold: Florian Mayer, Thiemo De Bakker, Viktor Troicki
Quarterfinal predictions: Roger Federer over Michael Llodra, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Gilles Simon, Marcos Baghdatis over Bernard Tomic, and Juan Martin Del Potro over Jarkko Nieminen
Semifinals: Federer over Tsonga and Del Potro over Baghdatis
Final: Federer over Del Potro
SAP Open
Where: San Jose, California
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: $546,930
Points: 250
Top seed: Milos Raonic
Defending champion: Milos Raonic
Draw analysis: The first American hard-court swing of the season, which culminates in Miami, begins this week in San Jose. And–as always–the Americans have signed up in bunches. A recent slump has bumped John Isner into the second-seeded slot behind Raonic, but the big man has an opportunistic draw that may allow him to get back on track. Isner will begin against either Evgeny Donskoy or Vasek Pospisil before a potential quarterfinal against Xavier Malisse. He also avoided Sam Querrey and Lleyton Hewitt–both of whom have been relative nemeses for the 6’9” American in the past–in the bottom half of the bracket. In the third quarter, meanwhile, Tommy Haas and Fernando Verdasco could collide in the last eight.
A high-quality semifinal between Raonic and Querrey may be in the cards. Raonic is the two-time defending champion of this event and Querrey is coming off a clutch Davis Cup save in which he held off Brazil’s Thiago Alves in a decisive fifth rubber. Querrey not only has the misfortune of drawing Raonic instead of Isner, but he will likely have to face Hewitt right off the bat. Raonic should have no such trouble in a soft section at the top of the draw. Other Americans to watch this week include Ryan Harrison and wild cards Jack Sock, Bradley Klahn, and Steve Johnson–who has an intriguing opener with Ivo Karlovic on his hands.
First-round upset alert: (WC) Jack Sock over (7) Marinko Matosevic. Something will have to give in this one, because neither man has won a real match this season. Sock, who lost his qualifying openers in both Brisbane and at the Australian Open, continues to deal with injuries (part of the reason why he is stuck down at 164th in the world as of Sunday). Matosevic, however, is 0-3 for his 2013 campaign and he has not even won a single set aside from a meaningless Davis Cup dead-rubber win over Chinese Taipei. On his favorite surface of American hard courts, Sock is in with a big chance here.
Hot: Sam Querrey, Blaz Kavcic, Steve Johnson, Evgeny Donskoy
Cold: John Isner, Fernando Verdasco, Xavier Malisse, Ivo Karlovic, Matthew Ebden, Vasek Pospisil
Semifinal predictions: Milos Raonic over Sam Querrey and Tommy Haas over Xavier Malisse
Final: Raonic over Haas
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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