Estoril QF preview and prediction: Ruud vs. Baez

A blockbuster quarterfinal matchup that should probably be the final will headline Friday’s action at the Estoril Open.

Sebastian Baez is at least the second-best clay-court player in the Estoril field and perhaps even the best at the moment, but he is seeded behind the likes of Hubert Hurkacz, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Roberto Bautista Agut. Thus the fifth-seeded Baez was at the mercy of the draw, and sure enough he landed in the same quarter as No. 1 seed Casper Ruud.

This marks their first-ever encounter, and it should be a good one. Ruud is a considerable favorite on paper as the world No. 5 (Baez is 32nd), but this season has been a huge struggle for him. The 24-year-old is just 5-6 and did not win more than a single match at any of his first five tournaments. A change from hard courts to clay hardly made things any easier in Ruud’s Estoril opener on Wednesday, when he scraped past Joao Sousa 4-6, 6-2, 6-2.

Baez, on the other hand, played on the Golden Swing in February and reached at least the quarterfinals at three of the four stops–including a title in Cordoba. So far in Estoril the 22-year-old Argentine has posted straight-set victories over Radu Albot and Pedro Cachin.

This is a great opportunity for Baez to pick up a top-five win. Ruud’s 2022 campaign was extremely long given all of his success and he didn’t really have an offseason as a result of his exhibition tour with Rafael Nadal. The Norwegian is short on rest and even shorter on confidence. A rough draw against an opponent who will make points very long and physical probably isn’t what Ruud wants right now.

Pick: Baez in 3