The ACC Championship between the Duke Blue Devils and the Virginia Cavaliers carries arguably the most intrigue on conference championship weekend, as it plays a direct role in determining who fills in one of the remaining vacant spots in the College Football Playoff. If Virginia wins, the Cavaliers are likely in. If Duke wins, well…chaos ensues. The action kicks off at 8:00 pm ET on ABC from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Here are my favorite bets for the ACC Championship.
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers odds
Money line: Duke +152 / Virginia -180
Spread: Duke +3.5 (-102) / Virginia -3.5 (-120)
Total: Over 57.5 (-115) / Under 57.5 (-105)
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers best bet #1: Virginia -3.5 (-120)
These teams met at Duke less than a month ago and the Cavaliers wiped the floor with the Blue Devils. UVA outgained Duke 540 to 255 despite two turnovers, rushing for 5.3 yards per carry while QB Chad Morris threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns. Since then, Duke has defeated North Carolina and Wake Forest but surrendered 57 combined points in those games. Meanwhile, Virginia benefited from a bye week after beating Duke and then held in-state rival Virginia Tech to just seven points last week.
I tried to see any case being made for Duke, but it’s hard to envision much changing in this one given how vastly different these defenses have played. Virginia ranks 21st nationally in yards per play allowed and third in third-down conversion rate this season, while sitting top-15 in most efficiency metrics on standard downs and passing downs against both the run and the pass since early November. On top of that, Virginia is second nationally in havoc generated over the last five weeks. Meanwhile, Duke is outside the top 115 in most major defensive metrics no matter how you assess it, as well as 118th in havoc allowed since Week 10. How are the Blue Devils going to keep up with Virginia’s expected scoring? I don’t see it.
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers best player prop bet: J’Mari Taylor Over 89.5 rushing yards (-115)
J’Mari Taylor controls Virginia’s backfield. His 207 carries are 140 more than his backup’s, as his usage has been through the roof. In fact, he carried the ball at least 15 times in all but one FBS matchup this season — with at least 20 carries in four of them.
In Virginia’s last four games, Taylor has eclipsed 90 yards three times — which includes his 18-carry, 133-yard performance at Duke on November 15. Given the cold conditions expected in Charlotte on Saturday night, look for Taylor to once again be heavily involved against this porous Duke defense.
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