From the start of this season through the French Open, Novak Djokovic suffered losses to the likes of Hyeon Chung, Taro Daniel, Benoit Paire, Martin Klizan, Kyle Edmund, and Marco Cecchinato. Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem–in less alarming fashion–also took him down.
Fast forward to early August, however, and Djokovic is the reigning Wimbledon champion and the odds-on favorite to win the upcoming U.S. Open. He is also back in the top 10 after plunging as low as No. 23 in the world, stemming from an extended absence and subsequent loss of form due to a lingering elbow issue.
Following his sudden success on grass, the 31-year-old Serb is back on his hard-court stomping grounds for the current stretch of blockbuster tennis in Toronto, Cincinnati, and ultimately the U.S. Open. He is a four-time champion at the Rogers Cup, a five-time runner-up at the Cincinnati Masters, and a two-time winner in Flushing Meadows.
As such, it is no surprise that for the upcoming U.S. Open the big four are once again favorites as the next generation continues to struggle to break through in the Grand Slams. Djokovic is the favorite, followed close behind by Roger Federer and Nadal. Making a comeback of his own from serious injury, Andy Murray picked up some momentum with a quarterfinal run in Washington, D.C. and he is the fourth favorite (tied with Alexander Zverev) to capture a second title in New York City.
Zverev is still searching for an elusive slam breakthrough. The third-ranked German at least got part of the monkey off his back with a best-ever quarterfinal performance at the French Open this spring, but he promptly flamed out of Wimbledon in the third round at the hands of qualifier Ernests Gulbis.
Along with Zverev, the list of players 25 years old or younger who could shake things up at the U.S. Open also includes Thiem, Diego Schwartzman, Nick Kyrgios, Edmund, Lucas Pouille, Jack Sock, Borna Coric, Chung, Denis Shapovalov, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Theim at least has one major final appearance (2018 French Open), but otherwise the waiting game is still being played as Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic continue to dominate the sport.
“I do believe the depth in the men’s game is as great as it’s ever been,” Federer said last year. “But because of the way they play–maybe not super-fast like they used to back in the ’80s–the margins are bigger because of the surface speed, the ball speed, and the racket technology. You have to hit a lot of good shots to come through a Murray or a Djokovic. Over five sets, it catches up with you and it’s favorable for the top guys.
“Since my generation and Rafa’s generation…the next one hasn’t been strong enough to push all of us out. A young guy, if he wants to make a breakthrough, he can beat me or any top player. But if he doesn’t make a run to the final or win the tournament, he’s not making any move in the rankings.”
Fabio Fognini, for one, has been even more critical of the so called “NextGen.”
“This Next Generation thing is bull****,” Fognini quipped earlier this summer. “I don’t like all this attention. I don’t agree with all this attention given to these young players. I hope they will play well. Shapovalov will surely be among the top five in the world. If someone plays well, he is going to get attention.”
Playing well is one thing. Playing well and producing results–especially at slams–is a whole different story with the big four still around. And with Djokovic seemingly back in peak form, it will only become even more difficult in the immediate future.
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