Week 1 of the 2026 NFL campaign wraps up with the first Monday Night Football installment of the season. It does not get much bigger, too, as the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs are AFC West rivals who both have realistic Super Bowl aspirations.
Let’s dive into my Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs odds
Money line: Broncos +112 / Chiefs -132
Spread: Broncos +2.5 (-112) / Chiefs -2.5 (-108)
Total: Over 43.5 (-110) / Under 43.5 (-110)
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs best bet #1: Under 43.5 (-110)
The Broncos ranked in the top five of basically every defensive category last season, including No. 1 in sack rate. They are pretty much running it back with the same personnel on that side of the ball, which makes sense since there is no reason to mess with success. Among the visitors’ returning defensive stars are linebacker Nik Bonito and cornerback Pat Surtain II. Head coach Sean Payton’s defense had no trouble taking care of Kansas City’s offense in both head-to-head meetings last year, limiting the Chiefs to a mere 450 total yards of offense combined. Denver won those games 22-19 (with Mahomes on the field) and 20-13 (without Mahomes after he suffered a torn ACL in Week 15 against the Chargers). Mahomes is good to go for Week 1, but will he resemble the player who was once the undisputed best in the league? Maybe not — and especially not against this kind of ferocious defense.
On the other side of the ball, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo should once again have an impressive unit on his hands. Led by Chris Jones, K.C.’s front seven is strong — which will help make up for the departure of cornerback Trent McDuffie. Like last season, it would be no surprise if the two offenses struggle in this division-rivalry matchup.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs best player prop bet: J.K. Dobbins Over 47.5 rushing yards (-115)
Dobbins played in 10 games last year; he surpassed this 47.5 quota nine times. In fact, he ran for at least 61 yards in nine games — including more than 100 on two occasions. Dating back to 2024, Dobbins has cleared this number in 15 of his last 17 regular-season outings.
Denver is a run-first team in the first place, and that should be the case to an even greater extent with Nix coming off a fractured ankle in the divisional round of the 2025 playoffs. The Chiefs were solid but nothing special against the run last season, giving up 105.7 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per attempt.
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