No Jannik Sinner. No Carlos Alcaraz. No problem. Both Italy and Spain have advanced to the Davis Cup final without their best players. They will go head-to-head for the title on Sunday afternoon in Bologna.
Flavio Cobolli (ITA) vs. Jaume Munar (ESP)
Cobolli played the match of the tournament — and one of the matches of the year — on Friday, when he saved seven match points and outlasted Belgium’s Zizou Bergs 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-6(15) after three hours and four minutes. That result gave Italy a 2-0 sweep and sent the host nation through to Sunday’s Davis Cup Finals championship tie on Sunday in Bologna.
The Italy vs. Spain showdown is expected to feature a singles rubber between Cobolli and Munar, who will be facing each other for the second time. They just squared off earlier this fall at the Shanghai Masters, where Munar cruised 7-5, 6-1. The world No. 36 has been in stellar form this entire year and it has continued in Bologna, where he upset Czechia’s Jiri Lehecka 6-3, 6-4 before losing to Germany’s Alexander Zverev in a competitive two-setter in the semis. Although Cobolli is the one who has enjoyed a day off, that hardly matters given that his semifinal rubber was far more challenging than Munar’s both mentally and physically. Look for the Spaniard to prevail, just as he did in Shanghai.
Pick: Munar in 3
Matteo Berrettini (ITA) vs. Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP)
There is no reason for either Italy or Spain to make any changes in the No. 2 spot. Berrettini is 2-0 so far this week with straight-set victories over Austria’s Jurij Rodionov and Belgium’s Raphael Collignon. Carreno Busta opened with a 7-5, 6-4 loss to Czechia’s Jakub Mensik but bounced back to beat Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff 6-4, 7-6(6) on Saturday. The 34-year-old trailed 6-1 in the second-set tiebreaker in that match.
Berrettini and Carreno Busta will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers. They split a pair of meetings in 2022, when the Italian prevailed 7-5, 7-6(4), 6-4 at the Australian Open before the Spaniard got the job done 6-3, 6-2 at the Montreal Masters. Berrettini is healthy, playing well, and is the superior indoor hard-court player, so look for him to capitalize on his home-court advantage in front of what will be a raucous Italian crowd.
Pick: Berrettini in 2
Overall pick: Italy 2-1
WWW?
Who will win
Italy
Yes Italy 2-1
What the heck. I’ll say Spain 2-1. Carreno Busta still dangerous in the clutch, & Spain gets the edge in doubles.
Amazing to me that the Teams of Alcaraz and Sinner wind up in the Finals…Bravo to both!…..I’ll take Italy.
Great preview! It’s fascinating to see how both teams have reached the final without their top stars. The analysis of the Cobolli vs. Munar rematch is particularly insightful.