Sunday’s NBA primetime matchup on NBC pits the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Dallas Mavericks. It has been a tale of two seasons for these two Western Conference foes. Oklahoma City comes in with the best record in basketball (46-15), whereas Dallas (21-38) is heading straight for the NBA Draft lottery.
Let’s dive into my Thunder vs. Mavericks predictions.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks odds
Money line: Thunder -1100 / Mavericks +700
Spread: Thunder -16.5 (-105) / Mavericks +16.5 (-115)
Total: Over 233.5 (-110) / Under 233.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder best bet #1: Mavericks +16.5 (-115)
Although there isn’t much good to say about Dallas, at least this team is showcasing a respectable effort — unlike several other bottom-feeding NBA franchises that are desperate for a top pick in a stacked draft. Only twice in their last 20 games have the Mavericks lost by a margin bigger than this 16.5-point spread. They have actually won two of their last four contests, and in February they were relatively competitive against the likes of San Antonio (twice), Minnesota, and Boston.
OKC is without Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (abdomen and ankle). Williams is contributing 17.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, and 5.4 apg; Mitchell averages 14.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg, and 3.7 apg. Even for a team as good as the Thunder, it’s hard for anyone in the league to win by at least 17 points when that kind of production is missing.
The Mavs are 5-3 straight up in the last eight head-to-head matchups and 4-2 against the spread in their last six overall.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder best player prop bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 30.5 points (-108)
Gilgeous-Alexander has stayed under the 31-point mark in four of the last six contests. Over the past two games, SGA is 20-for-51 from the field and 1-for-6 from downtown. He has gone seven consecutive outings without making more than one three-pointer.
SGA is scoring a modest 28.0 ppg through two meetings with the Mavericks in 2025-26, and he may not log enough minutes to exceed this quota in a game that is expected to be lopsided.
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