Cincinnati QF preview and prediction: Fritz vs. Nakashima

It will be an all-American showdown when Taylor Fritz and Brandon Nakashima collide in the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati Open on Friday.

Fritz leads the head-to-head series 4-1, including 2-0 this season following wins in Dallas (6-3, 6-4) and just a couple of weeks ago in Washington, D.C. (6-3, 3-6, 6-3). However, Nakashima’s lone victory has come in none other than Cincinnati — he survived a 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) thriller in the 2024 second round.

Heading into the rematch, Nakashima is playing the best tennis of his career. The world No. 22 is 11-2 on the current summer hard-court swing with a semifinal showing in D.C. and a runner-up performance at the Montreal Masters. Playing on basically no rest, Nakashima has gotten right back in gear to beat Aleksandar Kovacevic, Daniil Medvedev (from triple-match point down), and Nuno Borges so far in Cincinnati.

Brandon Nakashima
Andrew Patron/Delray Beach Open


Fritz is also in outstanding form this summer. The world No. 9 advanced to a pair of grass-court finals, reached the quarters at Wimbledon, won the D.C. title, and secured his quarterfinal spot this fortnight by defeating Alex Michelsen, Daniel Merida, and Christopher O’Connell. Fritz has not dropped a single set in Cincy and no set has even been more competitive than 6-4.

Since the French Open, Fritz’s only quick exit has come in Montreal — where he fell right away to fellow Cincinnati quarterfinalist Thiago Agustin Tirante. That left the 28-year-old well rested for this event, and he is certainly capitalizing on the opportunity. Nakashima is playing too well to get completely wiped off the court, but you have to think fatigue is going to become a factor sooner rather than later — especially on the heels of back-to-back three-setters.

Pick: Fritz in 3

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WWW: Fritz vs. Nakashima?

8 Comments on Cincinnati QF preview and prediction: Fritz vs. Nakashima

  1. Always difficult to predict but if Nakashima has enough fuel left in his tank I think he will win this. I said the same thing when he was about to play Medvedev — against whom he broke his duck in fine style. Fritz he has beaten before, and Fritz, like Medvedev but not to the same degree, can lose confidence if things don’t go his way.

    But a lot of this is always influenced by intangibles: getting enough sleep, good recovery, which side of the bed people get out of, etc. All things being equal there I would pick Nakashima to win this — but of course all things are rarely equal!

      • It appears he did (though it’s always hard to tell where the fuel gauge is sitting before a match, for us looking from the outside). Nakashima totally aced that third set. Does anyone know if he resorted to M&Ms like Cobolli did to beat Paul after a slow start?😄

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