Cincinnati SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic will battle young Russian Daniil Medvedev for a spot in Sunday’s final in Cincinnati.

Daniil Medvedev is the in-form player of the moment; no doubt about it. The Russian kicked off his hard-court swing with a trip to the final in Washington, D.C. a couple of weeks ago, when Nick Kyrgios won 7-6(6), 7-6(4) in a cracker of a match. He followed that up with a trip to the finals last week in Montreal, where he got shellacked by Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-0. And now he has the chance at making his third consecutive final.

Of course, there are a few complications–one of which is the inevitable fatigue that comes with playing so much tennis in the heat of the North American summer. He’s bound to hit the wall eventually. The other complication is that he is running into Novak Djokovic, but it’s certainly not a lost cause for the underdog. Medvedev beat the Serb the last time they played, earlier this season in Monte-Carlo.

Further, Djokovic has shown some vulnerabilities in non-slam events in 2019. It’s not as though he is unbeatable, even on hard courts. Perhaps most concerning for the Djokovic camp is that the top seed reported feeling some elbow pain during his quarterfinal match on Friday night against Lucas Pouille. It’s certainly something he will keep his eye on, given that the U.S. Open is right around the corner.

But with all of that noted, Djokovic should still be considered the prohibitive title favorite, especially with rival Roger Federer out in a surprise third-round upset to qualifier Andrey Rublev. Expect Djokovic to go after Medvedev’s legs early in the match to wear the Russian down.

Cheryl pick: Djokovic in 3

Ricky pick: Djokovic in 2

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36 Comments on Cincinnati SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

  1. I think Djokovic will win, but I also think Medvedev’s legs are a lot younger than Djoker’s so I doubt he can take out Med’s legs. Of course Med has a lot more recent mileage in his legs so…

    • Generally I would agree, Ramara..but Med has had so many matches with virtually no break…eventually they’re going to get tired.

  2. Djokovic in 3 is the likely result but Medvedev can win if he plays like he has and Djokovic gets tight due to lack of matches on this surface.

  3. Didn’t watch the Nole v Pouille match but I am concerned that Nole had a MTO for his elbow. There have been rumors of an injury since Wimbledon. And I see that Pouille made it a tight match, well, the first set. Anyways I’m worried about Nole making whatever injury it is worse by long rallies with Med. I wish Nole would give Med a walkover – seriously. Goffin v Medvedev Final is fine with me. Not going to watch the SF match!

    Looks like Madison Keys has found some winning form in Cincy. Would be a good final: Keys v Kuznetsova.

    Have to mention how well Svetlana Kuznetsova is playing. Barty’s weapons did not work against Svetlana at all. It’s frightful for the US Open draw with Svetlana going unseeded!

    • Elizabeth,

      The ESPN commies said that Novak has six double faults in the match against Pouille. That is too high for him. But in this match he has figured out Medvedev just like Rafa did.

      Medvedev has to be able to change tactics and throw in some variety. I don’t know about Novak’s elbow but he seems to be in control.

      • Thank you, NNY.

        Appreciate the update

        I’m recording the match because I’m a chicken to watch 😀 But perhaps I’ll have a peek at the score now. Oh, Nole got the first set handily 😀

        Not sure it is safe to watch until Nole can break in the 2nd set …my stomach is upset these. Can’t take too much excitement hahaha it’s true. I have a bottle of TUMS within reach. This could still go either way!!

        • But he’s serving behind this set =yikes.

          I enjoyed the entire Rafa v Med match. But this match-up is not one I’ve been looking forward to. Nole already lost to this guy once. Nole needs to win 🤦‍♀️

          • Elizabeth,

            Uh oh. I spoke too soon. Out of nowhere Medvedev broke Novak. He won the second set. I sure didn’t see this coming.

            Medvedev has gotten treatment for his bicep twice now. Maybe it helped.

            Maybe you should just continue not to watch. Better fir the nerves! I will keep you updated.

          • Nny,

            🤦‍♀️No, not watching. dang it.

            I’m picking my Winston-Salem Bracket.
            Andy Murray is playing singles in Winston-Salem. Picked him to win a round.

      • I took my TUMS.
        It doesn’t bode well for Nole’s US Open chances. But we all know Rafa can beat this Medvedev! I will be vamos’ing 😀

        Poor Federer losing to Rublev. Doesn’t sound good for Fed.

        • Elizabeth, does not mean a thing! All it does it make them work harder at their games and they will come prepared! Rafa was not very impressive before RG and even in the first rounds and he still won it all!

          But that was a very impressive win by Medvedev! Full marks!

        • Elizabeth,

          I don’t know that this result has any bearing on the USO. I hope it’s not Novak’s elbow. It did seem as though Novak lost focus. But he has a week now to take it easy.

          I would really like to see Goffin win this.

    • Yeah, but this time he was visibly shaken! Didnt look very graceful at the net, clearly disappointed. Second time beaten by this kid, Novak is not a happy camper! But just watch and c, Medvedev will be in Rafa’s quarter at yhe US Open, sigh!

  4. Novak completely lost the plot, no elbow! I really thought Novak had this! Ah, he seems to have Novak’s number!!

    Novak is not happy at all!!

    So how did he not play like that with Rafa?!!! Rafa just blew him away!!! Interesting!

  5. Rafa had the windy, plus he stands way back to receive and is happy to take the net. I think Medevev never knew what hit him in Montreal.

  6. The very important question now is If Djokovic Won 2-0, which was a strong chance of happening at a set and a half, were all the people that said “Nole is too good, the top 3 are another level” correct on their assessment?

    This is very important because it happens so often, the result plays to the narrative but the analysis is not necessarily correct.

  7. Holy Mother Russia!

    Sorry, Elizabeth, but happy for Rafa that he’ll stay at #1 in the race a bit longer.

    Good luck to Goffin in the final. He deserves some good luck. Plus he’ll NEED it.

  8. Well done Medvedev; I didn’t watch the first two sets but watched the last. Well, didn’t see such an aggressive Medvedev before; I mean he’s winning short point tennis in the third set, very unlike those long rallies that he’s so used to playing. He really got his strategy right this time after losing the first set. Against Djoko, you need to be aggressive to beat him.

    So, we are getting a new winner for a Masters for the third time this season, keeping up with last season. Don’t know who will win tomorrow, but it’ll be terrible for Medvedev if he loses a final for the third time in a row!

    • We’ll see. Medvedev has been playing a LOT of tennis. This will be his 3rd final in 3 weeks. Not at all sure he’ll have much left for the USO.

      • Ramara- I understand where you’re coming from, however, Medvedev is so young. A guy his age should be fine with a whole week to recover, and with a day off between matches at the US Open. I will still remain skeptical that he can make any real noise at a major until it actually happens, but it’s possible. We’ve just seen far too often that the best-of-5 set format is just a step too far for these young guys when facing the Big 3. I could easily see him taking out Fed at the US Open if they met, but realistically not Novak or Rafa. I have very, very low expectations of Fed now, especially at the US Open. The past couple years the US Open was an absolute nightmare for Fed- unbearable humidity and unbearably slow court speed. That tournament is just not meant for a 38 year old, especially one who also favors quicker conditions at a Slam. I’m also just not so sure if that debilitating Wimbledon loss is one that he can really recover from. I understand that he has brushed of huge losses before just fine, but that wasn’t just a huge loss- it was likely a legacy-altering loss. If he wasn’t so close to retirement, I would have much more faith that he could fully recover from it. But I can’t fathom how a guy at his stage of career could possibly find the will to really compete at the highest level again after something like that. Winning that match would have been so great for his legacy, but it clearly wasn’t meant to be. If he is somehow able to shake it off and win another major before retirement, I will be dumbfounded. I can all but guarantee you that if it happens, it sure as hell ain’t happening at the US Open. I could easily see him going out early to a player way below Medvedev’s caliber, just like last year.

        As for Novak and Rafa, I still do not see them losing to anyone for each other at the US Open. IMO, the only people I can see beating Rafa are Novak or Injury. 🤷‍♂️

          • I think its a bit different in Fed’s case.

            1. He isn’t just playing for himself, he’s playing for the future of the game.
            2. He loves the game, the art and the competition.
            3. The fans believe he is the GOAT and will always give him the belief that he can win another major.
            4. Fed’s a businessman, this isn’t just tennis titles to him.

            So no, I dont think that loss will crush him emotionally, I think he will move on and accept there were plenty that he won when he probably shouldnt have (i.e. there were plenty of times he served lights out to win titles and there was only a point or 2 in it) and you take the good with the bad.

  9. Wow! Did not see this coming! I saw the first set and a half! Went to sleep when Nole had a break point in the second set thinking it was a cruise control for Novak…Well done, Medvedev! Hope he wins the title now!

  10. Actually Medvedev had shown off some of his varieties in this SF match; so he’s not just grinding his way through matches.

    I saw him throwing in drop shots, good volleying at the net, great passing shots and great first and second serves, change of directions of his shots, and most impressive of all, his ability to change strategy during the match when things were not working for him.

    He also looked determined out there and wasn’t overcome by nerve when nearing the finishing line. He’s quite a unique player, I must say, one who is filled with so much confidence and belief in his own game and his own abilities.

    • and he is very unorthodox. Absolutely correct- Has a lot of self-belief. And he is a nasty character who just want to give up to big 3 dominance.

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