Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev will be facing each other for the fifth time in their careers when they clash in the quarterfinals of the Western & Southern Open on Friday.
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 3-1 after most recently prevailing 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 in the Wimbledon fourth round earlier this summer. The Spaniard twice won in straight sets at the Nitto ATP Finals, first in 2023 and again in 2024. Rublev’s lone victory has come via a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 decision at last year’s Madrid Masters.
Having skipped Toronto, Alcaraz is well rested and should be eager to get a few more matches under his belt prior to the U.S. Open. Bidding for his second Cincinnati final appearance and first title, the world No. 2 has advanced with victories over Damir Dzumhur, Hamad Medjedovic, and Luca Nardi–the last two in easy straight sets.
Rublev, on the other hand, has been all over the place throughout the hard-court swing. The 11th-ranked Russian played in Los Cabos (lost in the semifinals to Aleksandar Kovacevic), Washington, D.C. (lost his opening match to Learner Tien), and Toronto (lost in the quarterfinals to Taylor Fritz). Rublev has advanced to the last eight in Cincinnati by defeating Tien, Alexei Popyrin, and Francisco Comesana. A quick victory over Comesana on Wednesday was just what the doctor ordered, but Rublev still has a lot of matches in his legs–including a ridiculous three-hour and 29-minute marathon against Popyrin.
Rublev’s only win in this matchup came when his opponent was physically compromised, and two routine losses on Alcaraz’s worst surface–indoor hard courts–do not bode well for the underdog. Count on Alcaraz continuing his march through the Cincinnati draw, likely on his eventual way to a final showdown against Jannik Sinner.
Pick: Alcaraz in 2
WWW?
Carlos in 2…but Rublev will fight him all the way.
Alcaraz in 2
alcaraz in 2