Thursday Night Football in Week 12 of the NFL season is an AFC showdown between the Buffalo Bills (7-3) and Houston Texans (5-5). Both teams could really use a win — Buffalo to stay in AFC East contention and Houston to keep itself in the wild-card picture.
Let’s dive into my Bills vs. Texans predictions.
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans odds
Money line: Bills -290 / Texans +235
Spread: Bills -6 (-110) / Texans +6 (-110)
Total: Over 43.5 (-110) / Under 43.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans best bet #1: Texans +6 (-110)
There is no denying that Buffalo is the better team. That being said, Houston is playing at home and boasts an unbelievable defense. Six points can go a long way especially when games are low scoring — and that is generally the case when the Texans are involved. They are capable of making this a defensive slog and keeping it a one-possession contest, if not even winning outright. Head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team is No. 1 in the entire league in total defense, (258.1 yards per game allowed), No. 1 in scoring (16.3 points per game allowed), No. 3 in passing (171.0 yards), and No. 3 in rushing (87.1 yards). It is also tied for No. 5 with 16 takeaways.
On the other side of the ball, Houston quarterback CJ Stroud is still sidelined by a concussion. However, Davis Mills is a more-than-capable backup who has a lot of experience. Mills has been solid in four appearances (three starts) during the 2025 campaign, completing 60.0 percent of his attempts with three touchdowns and one interception. Meanwhile, Buffalo has lost two of its last three road outings, including to Atlanta by 10 points and to Miami by 17 points. Those are horrible results considering the quality — or lack thereof — of the opposition. Count on the Texans being competitive from start to finish on TNF.
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans best player prop bet: Woody Marks Over 57.5 rushing yards (-120)
As good as Houston’s defense is, perhaps the best way to combat Josh Allen and the Bills is to keep their offense on the sideline as long as possible. That means the Texans should try to establish the running game and work the clock. It’s the way to maneuver against Buffalo’s defense, anyway. The Bills stink against the run. They are giving up 153.0 yards per game on the ground (second most in the league) and allowing 5.4 yards per attempt (also the second most).
Marks, a rookie out of USC, has gained at least 62 yards in three of the last seven contests and in two of the last four. In what is an extremely favorable matchup, Marks should be in line for his best output of the season.
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