The 2024 tennis season is upon us. It starts with a bang, too, as Rafael Nadal’s long-awaited comeback gets underway at the Brisbane International. Nadal is part of a strong field that also features Holger Rune, Grigor Dimitrov, and Andy Murray, while the Bank of China Open in Hong Kong is headlined by Andrey Rublev, Frances Tiafoe, and Karen Khachanov.
Here are my previews and picks for the two season-opening tournaments.
Brisbane International
Where: Brisbane, Australia
Surface: Hard
Points: 250
Prize money: $661,585
Top seed: Holger Rune
Defending champion: Kei Nishikori (not playing)
Draw analysis: If Nadal stays healthy, one of the biggest storylines of the 2024 season (until he gets ranked high enough) involves the Spaniard going into every tournament unseeded and at the mercy of draws. The first one of the year proved to be a kind one for Nadal, who will get things started in Brisbane against a qualifier before possibly meeting Aslan Karatsev in round two and No. 4 seed Ugo Humbert in the quarterfinals. Potential semifinal foes for the 22-time Grand Slam champion are Dimitrov, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, and Thanasi Kokkinakis. The bottom half of the draw is highlighted by an opening-round showdown between Dimitrov and Murray.
At the top of the bracket, Rune may not have an easy time reaching the title match. Max Purcell has home-court advantage against the 20-year-old Dane in round one, while possible quarterfinal opponent Sebastian Korda played extremely well Down Under last season (Adelaide runner-up, Australian Open quarterfinalist). Elsewhere in the top half, Ben Shelton is in a section with Sebastian Baez, Marton Fucsovics, and Matteo Arnaldi.
Quarterfinal predictions: Sebastian Korda over Holger Rune, Ben Shelton over Matteo Arnaldi, Ugo Humbert over Rafael Nadal, and Grigor Dimitrov over Thanasi Kokkinakis
Semifinals: Shelton over Korda and Dimitrov over Humbert
Final: Dimitrov over Shelton
Bank of China Open
Where: Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Surface: Hard
Points: 250
Prize money: $661,585
Top seed: Andrey Rublev
Defending champion: None (inaugural event)
Draw analysis: Hong Kong won’t make as many headlines as Brisbane (which is king this week thanks to Nadal’s participation), but the 28-man draw is a strong one. Rublev, Khachanov, Tiafoe, and Francisco Cerundolo are the top four seeds with byes; they are followed by Jan-Lennard Struff, Lorenzo Musetti, Laslo Djere, and Arthur Fils. Marin Cilic, Roberto Bautista Agut, Emil Ruusuvuori, Miomir Kecmanovic, and Botic van de Zandschulp are among the unseeded floaters. Even though Rublev, Khachanov, and Tiafoe are clearly the cream of the crop, no one is likely to have an easy time of things in Hong Kong given the depth of the field.
Neither one of the top two Russians can expect to have smooth sailing to the final. Rublev is on a collision course for the quarterfinals with Fils, the recent NextGen ATP Finals runner-up. Tiafoe, Kecmanovic, and Van de Zandschulp also find themselves in the top half of the draw. Khachanov arguably has an even more difficult road; he is likely to face Ruusuvuori in round two and potentially Musetti in the quarters. The other section is wide open—home to Cerundolo, Struff, Cilic, Mackenzie McDonald, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Fabian Marozsan.
Quarterfinal predictions: Andrey Rublev over Arthur Fils, Miomir Kecmanovic over Jungcheng Shang, Mackenzie McDonald over Roberto Bautista Agut, and Karen Khachanov over Pavel Kotov
Semifinals: Rublev over Kecmanovic and Khachanov over McDonald
Final: Rublev over Khachanov
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