Breaking down the Nitto ATP Finals field: What is the hardest possible group?

The 2023 Nitto ATP Finals field is set. We know the eight players that will take their talents to Turin later this week, and we also know that this tournament has all the makings of delivering serious excitement from start to finish.

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic is obviously a heavy favorite, but beyond that this is an extremely deep and balanced top eight. Here it is:

1. Novak Djokovic
2. Carlos Alcaraz
3. Daniil Medvedev
4. Jannik Sinner
5. Andrey Rublev
6. Stefanos Tsitsipas
7. Alexander Zverev
8. Holger Rune

For Thursday’s draw ceremony, Djokovic is automatically in Group A as the top seed and the second-seeded Alcaraz goes into Group B. After that, players go into the proverbial pot in groups of two: No. 3 Medvedev and No. 4 Sinner; No. 5 Rublev and No. 6 Tsitsipas; No. 7 Zverev and No. 8 Rune.

Sinner and Mevedev

Medvedev has more experience at the year-end championship. He won it in 2020 and finished runner-up to Zverev in 2021. Sinner, however, is in incredible form heading into this season’s edition. The Italian’s fall swing includes titles in Beijing and Vienna, and he beat none other than Medvedev in both finals. Sinner has home-court advantage in Turin, too. The bottom line is that each guy is going to be a tough out, and whoever lands with Alcaraz has to be considered the favorite to win the group.

Rublev and Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas has generally been ranked higher than Rublev in recent years and the Greek is far more accomplished at the Grand Slam level. However, the tide has turned a bit in 2023. Rublev has been extremely consistent from start to finish, whereas Tsitsipas started hot, went cold, and is finally rounding back into form. Tsitsipas won the Nitto ATP Finals in 2019, which may give him a slight edge over Rublev. An advantage in current form, though, goes to the Russian.

Zverev and Rune

Until the last two weeks, Zverev would have been considered a more difficult opponent than Rune. The 20-year-old Dane had been ice cold since Wimbledon, but he appears to have heated back up with a semifinal showing in Basel and a quarterfinal performance at the Paris Masters (lost to Djokovic in three sets). Rune doesn’t have any year-end championship experience, but he loves the big stage and indoor hard courts clearly suit his game. As for Zverev, he won the Nitto ATP Finals in both 2018 and 2021. A third title isn’t entirely out of the question now that he is back to his best–or at least close–following a 2022 ankle injury.

For the first time in recent memory, there is little difference in any of those duos. The only notable discrepancy is between No. 1 and No. 2, as Djokovic has not lost a match since the Wimbledon final whereas Alcaraz has struggled throughout the hard-court summer and fall. As a result, Djokovic’s group is guaranteed to be the more difficult of the two regardless of how the rest of the draw shakes out.