Belgrade final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Rublev

Andrey Rublev
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The Serbia Open faithful will get what they paid to see this week: Novak Djokovic in the final–and a final between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, too.

Djokovic will go up against Andrey Rublev on Sunday afternoon after navigating a wild ride through the bracket. The 34-year-old Serb came back from a set down in each of his first three matches, including from a set and a break deficit against both Laslo Djere and Miomir Kecmanovic. Djokovic finally did not have to face a fellow Serb in the semis, but he still dropped the opening frame of play before storming back to beat Karen Khachanov 4-6, 6-1, 6-2.

Rublev also came close to finding himself out of the tournament right away. Belgrade’s second seed lost his first set to Jiri Lehecka and was pushed to a tiebreaker in the second, but he battled through that contest 4-6, 7-6(1), 6-2. Since then it has been smooth sailing for Rublev, who erased Taro Daniel 6-3, 6-3 and Fabio Fognini 6-2, 6-2.

“Today I played even better (than in the quarterfinals),” the world No. 8 said after destroying Fognini. “I think (it was) my best match of the tournament so far. It’s good that every match I’m playing better and better.”

Unfortunately for Rublev, Djokovic also raised his level considerably in the semis. The 20-time Grand Slam champion is still not as his absolute best in just his third tournament of the year, but his performance against Khachanov was most definitely an encouraging one. Djokovic should also take confidence from the fact that he dominated his only previous meeting with Rublev 6-3, 6-2 at the Nitto ATP Finals last fall.

Having finally found a consistently impressive level this week, the world No. 1 should be able control Sunday’s match mostly from start to finish.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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16 Comments on Belgrade final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Rublev

  1. You can make a solid case for Rublev here. I’d be surprised if Rublev lost 2-0.

    However, looking back at history that’s certainly a strong possibility as far as Djokovic is concerned. Whether that’s still applicable under current circumstances is debatable.

  2. Djoko to win in three sets as usual in this tournament. He can simply grind his way to a win even when he’s not playing well. His opponents just couldn’t sustain playing at a high level throughout the match to beat him.

  3. H’mmm, I smell a rat. My theory, totally unsubstantiated, is that NoVax wanted the most practice he could get out of this rinky dink Serbian tournament, so he played all possible sets! Maybe he finally got a little tired in the 3rd set of the final? Dunno, haven’t seen it yet.

    • That sounds about right. He was less concerned about winning and more about time spent on court. Winning was just a by-product of his focus on improvement and increased fitness.

  4. Djokovic says he is dealing with the after-effects of an illness that hit him a few weeks ago: “It’s not Covid. I don’t want to enter details. I feel tired and recovery time is longer. I think I will get better week by week.”

    Probably explains his physical struggles. I did find him struggling so much strange given how strong an athlete he is.

  5. I understand his health is his private matter but when you don’t want to disclose it, why even bring it up for people to speculate about it .

    • Sometimes it is not easy to totally dodge such questions in the pressers. I don’t know what he was asked though. Anyway, his fitness was nowhere near its usual level but like he said, he’ll recover.

      • I didn’t see this video but I read today that after one of his matches Novax talked about how fit and healthy he felt, back in top form. I dunno, just bothered me. I know it’s perfectly possible for an ordinary person to feel great one day and poorly the next.

    • Well the betting odds and the media r bedfellows!!! Everyone”s jumping on the Alcaraz bandwagon like they did with so many others before!! The kid has had good results no doubt but he is yet to get to the semis at a GS, how could the odds be greater for him than it is for Novak?! It won’t be surprised if his odds become greater than Rafa”s!! 🙄

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