The quarterfinal schedule in Beijing is headlined by a showdown between No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev and No. 6 Novak Djokovic. Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev are also taking the court on Sunday.
(1) Alexander Zverev vs. (6) Novak Djokovic
Zverev and Djokovic will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers when they collide in the Japan Open quarterfinals on Sunday. Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 9-5 after most recently prevailing 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 in the 2025 Roland Garros quarters. The 39-year-old Serb has won five of their seven outdoor hard-court encounters, and they have split a pair of meetings in Asia (Djokovic cruised 6-2, 6-1 in the 2018 Shanghai semis before Zverev triumphed in three sets at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics).
Both guys absolutely love Beijing. Djokovic is an unbelievable 31-0 lifetime at this tournament with six titles. That being said, it has not been a walk in a park for him this week. The world No. 11 beat Nuno Borges 6-3, 7-6(2) and Bu Yunchaokete 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-2 without looking 100 percent physically in either match. Zverev is 16-6 all time in Beijing and has lost prior to the quarterfinals just once in seven main-draw appearances. The top-seeded German has coasted this week, disposing of Cameron Norrie and Jerry Shang in straight sets. With Zverev in far superior form and even more importantly in much better shape physically, this could be one-way traffic for the 29-year-old.
Pick: Zverev in 2
(5) Alex de Minaur vs. Andrey Rublev
De Minaur leads Djokovic by 20 points in the race to the Nitto ATP Finals and both players are in realistic contention if they can play well down the stretch. Although De Minaur did not play well during the North American hard-court summer, he upset Zverev at the Laver Cup and so far in Beijing has dismissed in-form opponents Mariano Navone and Quentin Halys.
Up next for the 10th-ranked Australian is a ninth contest against Rublev, with the head-to-head series tied at 4-4. Rublev has won two of three meetings on outdoor hard courts, but one of those went five sets (2024 Australian Open) and the other was decided 10-8 in a third-set tiebreaker (2025 Doha). The world No. 24 has also underwhelmed this season, but his Asian swing is off to a good start with a runner-up showing in Hangzhou followed by Beijing wins over Tallon Griekspoor and Roman Safiullin — both in three tight sets. De Minaur is more rested and will make Rublev hit way more balls than the Russian’s first two opponents, so look for the fifth seed to have a slight edge.
Pick: De Minaur in 3
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Good call on de Minaur there — I wasn’t sure he’d make it across the line.
I’d not be surprised to see Zverev beating Djokovic this evening.
Oooh, he’s got the first break already, first game! Which isn’t necessarily a litmus — Djokovic often loses the entire first set — but Zverev started sharp here!
How about that WTA result — Bartunkova totally demolishing Sabalenka!😮
Well done Novak 😊👏
Yes, that was incredible!
Didn’t see the match
Djoker was good
Just when you think he looks like he’s struggling too much he turns in a performance like this!
Im behind with my watching, now Ive seen these results, no point watching