Beijing R2 previews and predictions: Zverev vs. Davidovich Fokina, Jarry vs. Arnaldi

Half of the quarterfinal spots at the Beijing ATP 500 will be handed out on Saturday, when Alexander Zverev faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Second-round action also includes Nicolas Jarry vs. Matteo Arnaldi.

(8) Alexander Zverev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Zverev and Davidovich Fokina will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers and for the second time this season when they meet again in round two of the China Open on Saturday. Their first three encounters all went Zverev’s way, but they faced each other at the Toronto Masters this summer and Davidovich Fokina dominated 6-1, 6-2 on his eventual way to the semifinals.

Based on recent form, Zverev looks poised to turn the tide back in his favor. The 10th-ranked German wrapped up his summer with a quarterfinal showing at the U.S. Open and the fall swing has always been one of his most productive times of the year. Zverev is up to his usual tricks in 2023, as he captured the Chengdu title earlier this week before beating Diego Schwartzman in his Beijing opener. Davidovich Fokina has cooled off a bit since Toronto and went 0-3 across Davis Cup and Laver Cup stints, so Zverev should be able to maintain his momentum.

Pick: Zverev in 3

(Q) Matteo Arnaldi vs. Nicolas Jarry

Both Jarry and Arnaldi are enjoying the best years of their careers and judging by results so far in Beijing they appear to be wrapping it up in style. Jarry kicked off his week with a 6-4, 6-4 upset of Stefanos Tsitsipas on Friday. Arnaldi qualified for the main draw by beating Daniel Elahi Galan and Aleksandar Vukic before ousting J.J. Wolf 6-2, 6-2 in the first round.

The result is a first-ever matchup between two players who are rising up the rankings. Arnaldi comes in 25 spots below his opponent and No. 48 in the world, but the 22-year-old Italian has been especially on fire dating back to the start of the summer and an outdoor hard court should be somewhat in his favor in this particular matchup. This may be the toughest match to call on the entire second-round schedule in Beijing, but a slight edge goes to Arnaldi.

Pick: Arnaldi in 3