Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev will be facing each other for the seventh time in their careers when they battle for the Nordea Open title on Sunday afternoon.
Rublev leads the head-to-head series 4-2, but all four of his victories came before Ruud went on his run of three Grand Slam final appearances. The Norwegian has won each of the past two meetings–in a third-set tiebreaker at the 2021 Nitto ATP Finals and via a 6-2, 6-4 decision in the semis of the Nitto ATP Finals one year later.
A move from indoor hard courts to clay should only help Ruud. Both guys are excellent on the red stuff, but it favors the Norwegian to an even greater extent. He is a two-time French Open runner-up and nine of his 10 ATP titles have come on this surface (all at the ATP 250 level). Ruud has been dominant so far in Bastad, with straight-set victories over Alexander Shevchenko, Sebastian Ofner, and Lorenzo Musetti.
Rublev had been rolling in similar fashion at the expense of Pavel Kotov and Alexander Zverev, but Francisco Cerundolo pushed him a three-set semifinal that lasted two hours and 47 minutes on Saturday. The second-seeded Russian now aims for his second title of the season, having previously triumphed at the Monte-Carlo Masters.
This should be an outstanding match, but Ruud is the king of clay-court 250s and he has been the best player in Bastad all week long.
Pick: Ruud in 3
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Rublev may be a bit tired, and that could be the edge……Rudd in 2.
Great defense by Cerundolo in extending that match. So Rublev might be tired.I still pick Ruud in three anyway.